To quote Boys II Men, “We’ve come to the end of the road.” Week 18 is the final slate for NFL survivor pools.
If your contest is anything like the Covers $10K Pro Football Survivor Pool (with a dozen entries remaining from the original 4,500+), only a select few are vying for the Grand Prize this weekend.
Before we wrap it up, thanks for following along with this article each week — even though my personal pool life didn’t last long. I hope that between my suggested selections and the safest NFL picks highlighted, you were able to navigate your way to winnings.
Here is my NFL Week 18 survivor pool pick and the “safest” selection, according to the NFL odds.
Best survivor pool bets for Week 18
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
My pick: Houston Texans
Opponent: vs. Indianapolis Colts
Moneyline odds: -600 (85.71% implied win probability)
I know I’m not going too far out on a limb here, but I’ll be damned if I get cute and cost you a shot at survivor glory. That’s how you get SWAT’d.
Based on the Houston Texans’ slow start to 2025 and injuries to quarterback C.J. Stroud midway through the schedule, plenty of poolies still have Houston hanging around as an option in Week 18. That’s if you didn’t burn the Texans vs. Las Vegas in Week 14.
There’s plenty to like about Houston in the season finale. The Texans are at home, where they own an +8.3 margin of victory, and facing a Colts team that’s tapping out after a horrific second half of the season.
Indianapolis has lost six in a row and is expected to start Riley Leonard over Philip Rivers at quarterback, waiving the white flag against the premier defense in the AFC.
Houston won’t play with its food in Week 18. It needs a victory to secure the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoff picture, setting up a date with whichever team wins the AFC North.
Safest pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
Opponent: vs. Tennessee Titans
Moneyline odds: -625 (86.21% implied win probability)
Staying in the AFC South, the Jacksonville Jaguars can clinch the division with a win over Tennessee in Week 18. There’s a slim chance Jacksonville could earn the No. 1 seed, but would need the planets to align this weekend.
Regardless, the Jags are playing to win, which is reflected in this hefty spread. That said, that line has shrunk since opening with many expecting Jacksonville to build a lead and pull the starters in the second half.
Tennessee is playing competitive football down the stretch with a 2-2 record in its last four, and those two losses coming by one score. The last time these division rivals meet, however, Jacksonville blasted the Titans 25-3 in Week 13.
If you aren’t thrilled about jumping on the Jaguars, or don’t have them as a pick option, New England is showing similar odds to win versus Miami. The Patriots can take the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they win Sunday and Denver loses, but the line movement suggests the Chargers will rest their starters against Broncos.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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