While many sharp sports bettors are quick to dismiss most trends when it comes to Super Bowl odds, there are plenty worth considering. At the same time, many trends are mere coincidences and hold no relevance to the teams actually playing.
For Super Bowl LX, we have a mix of both. Some trends for the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots have carried over from the regular season into the playoffs and are worth keeping in mind. Others are just silly — things like jersey color, who wins the coin toss, or even the quarterbacks’ astrological signs.
While the silly trends make for fun anecdotes, they shouldn’t dictate how you spend your betting bankroll. That said, there are a few credible trends for both Seattle and New England that can give us a small edge when handicapping the latest NFL odds.
We’ll start by highlighting the noteworthy trends, and then we’ll explore some historical Super Bowl patterns along with the more lighthearted ones that can entertain casual viewers at your Super Bowl party.
For more Super Bowl picks, check out our Seahawks vs. Patriots predictions and our full slate of Super Bowl props ahead of Sunday, February 8!
Team trends
There’s no guarantee these trends will carry over from earlier games this season, as the Super Bowl is far different from a typical regular-season or playoff contest.
That said, a few patterns stand out for each team and should be on our radar.
Fast starts are the norm for New England
The Patriots stood out in several categories this season. They’ve been one of the league’s best bets from a full-game perspective, but they’ve been even more dominant in the first half, posting a 14-5-1 ATS record (including the playoffs).
They’ve been particularly impressive on the road, going 7-1-1 ATS in opening halves away from New England. Averaging a league-best 16.5 first-half points, don’t be surprised if they start strong.
Macdonald is a road warrior
The Seahawks have been flying high on the road since Mike Macdonald took over as head coach. They’ve gone an impressive 15-2 SU away from Seattle under Macdonald, posting a 12-4-1 ATS record — including 8-1 ATS this season.
In their six road games since early November, the Seahawks have racked up four double-digit wins.
Defenses taking over late
Don’t expect a late-game shootout — 12 of the Patriots’ last 15 games have gone under the fourth-quarter total. They haven’t allowed a single point in the fourth quarter in their last four games.
That aligns perfectly with a Seattle defense that’s also been stingy late, having shut out opponents in the fourth quarter in three straight games. This matchup has a fourth-quarter total of 12.5.
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Historic trends
When it comes to betting on the Super Bowl, context matters more than history. Aside from New England’s familiar presence on this stage, there’s very little that connects past Super Bowls to this year’s matchup.
These Seahawks and Patriots rosters are built differently than any of their predecessors, making decade-old trends largely irrelevant for handicapping Sunday’s game. That said, recent results often stick in bettors’ minds, so it’s worth examining what’s happened lately and how those narratives might be shaping betting action.
The first team to score wins
The team that opens scoring has gone on to win in 38 of 59 Super Bowls (67.2%), including nine of the previous 14.
Getting on the board first hasn’t guaranteed a win, but history suggests it’s rarely a bad place to start.
Underdogs cover the spread
Point spread underdogs have barked loudest on Super Bowl Sunday over the past 18 games, covering in 14 of those contests! That includes Philadelphia covering as a small underdog in last season’s Super Bowl against the Chiefs.
Heading into Super Bowl LX, the all-time favorite vs. underdog record is perfectly even at 28-28-2 ATS — one Super Bowl finished pick’em, with no official favorite or underdog.
Super Bowl winners cover the spread
The team that hoists the Lombardi Trophy usually delivers for football bettors as well, with Super Bowl winners covering the spread in 50 of the past 59 games.
There have been just seven ATS losses and two pushes, including the Los Angeles Rams four years ago, who beat the Bengals 23-20 as a four-point favorite.
The Over/Under is a coin flip
Super Bowl totals sit at an all-time 30-28 Over/Under (no total was set for Super Bowl I), with this year’s line at 45.5 points.
The Seahawks and Patriots have gone Over in seven straight head-to-head matchups.
Wide receivers produce the first touchdown
The touchdown scorer markets are hugely popular. Betting on the player to score the first TD of the Super Bowl can offer a solid payout, especially this year, with Kenneth Walker III holding the shortest odds at +370.
Historically, wide receivers have scored the first touchdown 25 times (42.3% of the games). Running backs follow with 17 (28.8%), quarterbacks with six (10.1%), defense/special teams players and tight ends each with five (8.47%), and fullbacks with two (3.38%).
Silly trends that are fun to talk about… and that’s about it
While trends from the regular season and historical numbers can be reliable for backing your bets, there are also plenty of downright silly ones that have nothing to do with the matchup at hand.
Let’s explore!
White jerseys win more
The team wearing white has won 16 of the past 21 Super Bowls. The trend was bucked last year, however, as it was the losing Chiefs who wore white jerseys.
For what it's worth, the Patriots have been revealed as the team that will wear white in Super Bowl 60.
Tails wins the coin flip more
Tails never fails? Well, it doesn’t fail as much as heads...
The Super Bowl coin toss has come up tails in 31 of the 59 Super Bowls. Since Super Bowl XLIX in 2014, the coin toss winner has gone on to lose the Super Bowl in nine of 11 games!
Logically, there’s no way to predict a literal coin flip, but you have a better shot at winning a coin flip bet than that ridiculous 10-leg parlay your know-it-all friend is pushing in the group text.
