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How to Approach Super Bowl Betting Trends in 2023

Should you be basing your Super Bowl bets on trends? Absolutely not. Jason Logan explains.

Last Updated: Feb 1, 2023 12:05 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
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Trends, trends, trends. Which are good? Which are bad?

“Trends” has become a cuss word among the enlightened sports betting sect, who aren’t wrong in poo-pooing these patterns. Truth be told, the bulk of betting trends are pure shit. And that goes double for Super Bowl betting trends.

However, as hollow as Big Game betting trends are, people gobble them up and treat them like the gospel – enough that I’m writing this rundown of Super Bowl 57 trends for your consumption. It’s like junk food for your gambling gut: you know you shouldn’t eat it, but it tastes so damn good.

That’s not to say there aren’t any NFL betting trends worth a wager — or at least a closer look — and even a Flamin’ Hot Cheeto has some nutritional value. Each Super Bowl is a unique scenario with minimal relevant head-to-head data to pull. That makes it nearly impossible to set an actionable narrative that could explain why these patterns pop up.

I hope you’re wearing your stretchy pants because we’re about to gorge on some fatty Super Bowl betting trends ahead of Super Sunday’s 6:30 p.m. E.T. kickoff.

Historic trends

One Super Bowl has very little connective tissue with the next, so historic Super Bowl trends are pure fluff for handicapping Super Bowl 57 odds. Don’t blindly bet something based on historic trends, or at least don’t tell me about it. I like you, and let’s not do anything to ruin that.

First team to score wins

The team that opens scoring has gone on to win in 37 of 56 Super Bowls (66%), including eight of the previous 11. That trend was backed up by the L.A. Rams opening scoring with a first-quarter touchdown in Super Bowl LVI and going on to win the game 23-20.

That said, the Chiefs opened the scoring with a field goal in Super Bowl LV and lost 31-9 to the Buccaneers – a Yes/No prop that paid out at +140 odds on the “No.”

Underdogs cover the spread

Point spread underdogs have barked loudest on Super Bowl Sunday over the past 15 games, covering in 11 of those contests, including eight of the past 10 Big Games. That includes Cincinnati losing 23-20 but covering as a 4-point pup in Super Bowl LVI.

But Super Bowl favorites still own the all-time edge at 28-25-2 ATS heading into Super Bowl LVI (one Super Bowl closed pick'em - no favorite/underdog).

Super Bowl winners cover the spread

The team that hoists the Lombardi Trophy usually comes through for football bettors in the process, with Super Bowl winners covering the spread in 47 of the past 56 games. The Super Bowl winner has produced just seven ATS losses and two pushes, including last year with the L.A. Rams won 23-20 but failed to cover as 4-point chalk.

This trend is misleading, however, as simply picking the Big Game winner is a task on its own. Double-dipping on a moneyline/point spread parlay for Kansas City (+105/+1.5 -110) would pay +105. 

Over/Under is a coin-flip

Super Bowl totals have an all-time tally of 27-28 Over/Under, and five of the past seven Super Bowls stayed below the total. This year’s total is sitting at 49.5 points. Going back to 2002, Super Bowl totals of 48 points or more have finished 2-9 O/U.

Wide receivers produce the first touchdown

The touchdown scorer markets are hugely popular. The player to score the first TD of the Super Bowl promises a pretty payout. As you shop these odds, keep in mind that wide receivers have produced the first touchdown of the Super Bowl on 25 occasions (44.6% of the time). Running backs are next with 16 (28.57%), followed by defense/special teams players and tight ends each with five (8.92%), quarterbacks with four (7.14%), and fullbacks with two (3.57%). Rams receiver Odell Beckham Jr. scored the first touchdown of Super Bowl LVI.

Bullshit trends

What’s worse than banking on historical betting trends for your Super Bowl wagers? How about leaning into some of these “freak show” trends below. Or better yet, see which side the octopus at the local aquarium likes. Those eight-armed beasties are apparently super smart.

White jerseys win more

The team wearing white has won 15 of the past 18 Super Bowls, including the L.A. Rams last season. Despite playing in their actual stadium, the Rams were designated as the road team in Super Bowl LVI (they alternate conferences each year). That means the AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs are the road side in Super Bowl LVII and will wear their white unis.

Bet on the team with the worse regular-season record

Fading the team with the better regular-season record has been making bank the past 17 Super Bowls, with the “better” team winning the Big Game just three times (Super Bowls XLIII, LI, and LVI).

However, Los Angeles was victorious in last year's Super Bowl (12-5) over Cincinnati (10-7). Two years ago, Kansas City owned a superior 14-2 mark compared to Tampa Bay’s record of 11-5, and all that got them was a 22-point ass waxing.

This season, Philadelphia and Kansas City bring twin 14-3 regular season records to Arizona. So, thankfully it makes it easier to ignore this terrible trend.

Tails wins the coin flip more

The coin toss has come up tails in 29 of the past 56 Super Bowls, including five of the past nine flips. But heads won four of the last five coin tosses, including last year. And since Super Bowl XLIX in 2014, the coin toss winner has gone on to lose the Super Bowl in each of those games – an 0-8 skid – making them 24-32 all-time. The Bengals won the toss in Super Bowl LVI and fell 23-20. Logically, there’s no right way to cap a literal coin flip, so do whatever you want.

Team trends

Trends based around the teams playing in the Super Bowl tend to stick to the wall a little more, especially if they’re focused on this season’s results. But again, every game situation is different, and no team plays on a stage like Super Bowl Sunday during the regular season.

Chiefs are kings of non-conference

Kansas City went 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS against NFC opposition this season and is 18-2 SU and 11-8-1 ATS in non-conference contests since 2019. Those matchups with the NFC have also produced a 9-11 O/U count. Philadelphia is just 8-10 ATS against the AFC in that span but those non-conference games pumped out a 12-6 O/U count.

Eagles soar in the playoffs

Philadelphia has been a solid bet in postseason play, with a 7-4 ATS record in the playoffs going back to 2010, including easily covering as favorites in both postseason contests this season. In fact, going back to 2000, the Eagles are 18-12 ATS in playoff action (60%). What's more, Philly is a remarkable 9-21 Over/Under in those games - a 70% Under winner.

Andy Reid off a bye week

Here's a trend the Eagles know all too well. Kansas City head coach and former Eagles coach Andy Reid is a remarkable 30-6 SU when coming off a bye week, including 8-3 SU in the postseason. The two-week break for Super Bowl gives Reid and the Chiefs a much-needed pause in action with some starters dinged up on both sides of the ball. Reid's teams have gone 22-14 ATS in those post-bye outings, but the Chiefs did fail to cover as 10-point home chalk in their 27-20 win over Jacksonville in the Divisional Round.

Odds trends

Digging into the spreads and totals trends for the Eagles and Chiefs may give you a better understanding of why the Super Bowl line is what it is, but no amount of “Beautiful Mind” magic will unlock the secrets of Super Bowl betting. 

Short playoff favorites stink

Postseason favorites of less than a field goal have been a bad bet since the millennium. Faves of less than a field goal (-2.5 or shorter) are just 22-22 SU and 18-25-1 ATS (42%) since 2000. The weird thing about this Super Bowl LVII spread is that we could see both teams show up as small chalk by the time this line is done moving. Now what do you do?

Chiefs ATS success tied to total?

Here's a weird one. The Super Bowl LVII total is bouncing between 49.5 and 50 points. Since 2018, Kansas City is 30-3 SU and 19-12-2 ATS (61%) in games with closing totals below 50 points. If the Over/Under is upped to 50 or more points, the Chiefs are 44-18 SU and 28-32-2 ATS (47%). 

Favored Philly falls short away from home

The Eagles are currently slim favorites for Super Bowl LVII. This team has struggled to live up to oddsmakers expectations when giving the points away from The Linc, with a 12-6 SU mark but 6-12 ATS record as road/neutral site chalk since 2019. This year's Eagles were 7-0 SU as away faves but just 2-5 ATS.

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