The NFL season is entering the home stretch and with it comes a ton of opportunistic prop markets. We’re looking into every market to uncover some of the week’s best side, team, player, and derivative prop bets, doing the heavy lifting for you.
Week 14 kicks off with a pair of inconsistent clubs looking to keep their playoff hopes alive as the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to take on the Minnesota Vikings.
Can Big Ben and the passing game build off last week's victory over the Ravens? Can Kirk Cousins shine in primetime? Find out in our free prop picks and predictions for the TNF's Week 14 game between the Steelers and Vikings.
Steelers vs Vikings prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Steelers vs Vikings TNF props
Harnessing Harris
The Minnesota Vikings have been playing thin at linebacker over the last couple of games but Anthony Barr and Erik Kendricks are expected to return to the lineup Thursday. The run defense ranks in the bottom of the league in EPA/play but Barr and Kendricks have missed a total of six games this season and now face one of the worst O-lines in football.
The Steelers don’t run the ball as much as many think, as their 23.7 carries per game rank 24th in the league and their 20.3 carries per game on the road is the second-lowest rate in football.
Yes, Najee Harris handles over 18 carries per game, but behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, Harris is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, which ranks outside the Top 40. Over his last five games, he’s run to a yards per carry mark of 3.5 or higher just once (4.0 ypc). Since Week 9, Harris has just four carries of 10-plus yards and runs into a wall on seemingly every carry.
Harris’ rushing total is moving up after opening at 70.5 yards and sits at 72.5. This is a number that Harris has topped just once in his last five games and it took 26 carries to do it. The Steelers had more success in the passing game last week and The Athletic's Steelers senior writer, Mark Kaboly, believes the team should go pass-heavy going forward as the ground game has proven ineffective.
We’re fading the running back on the underdog team, which is also in our favor. Game script has also been a major factor for opposing running backs having success against the Vikings of late.
PICK: Najee Harris Under 72.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Johnson law
Diontae Johnson is the second-most targeted receiver in football, drawing over 10 targets per game on the season. Over the last four games, no receiver is drawing more targets per game than Johnson, as his 12.75 targets pace the league. Ben Roethlisberger has peppered his favorite receiver heavily of late and Johnson has at least seven catches in four straight games, as Mike Tomlin realizes there isn’t much success in the team’s running game.
The Vikings allow more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than any other team in football. Opposing WRs are averaging 13/190/1.2 versus the Vikings and with Chase Claypool missing some practice, Johnson is likely headed for another double-digit target day.
Due to Claypool’s absence, Johnson’s reception total market is off the board. It will more than likely open at 6.5 as it has for the previous six games. We will hit this Over 6.5 at -120 or better but in the meantime, we’re eyeing his touchdown prop.
Johnson has three TDs over his last three games and is coming off a game where he scored both of his team’s TDs — one in the red zone and one from 29 yards out. Minnesota is a Top-10 team at defending tight ends which leaves Johnson to be the No. 1 option in this passing offense.
bet365 has his TD prop at +150 while other books have it as low as -110. If Claypool doesn’t suit up, this price will be long gone.
PICK: Diontae Johnson anytime TD (+150 at bet365)
Watt blooded
T.J. Watt was a force to be reckoned with last week versus the Ravens as the highest-paid defender finished with 3.5 total sacks and six total tackles. He’s finished with at least five total tackles (solo and assisted) in five of his last six games and faces a Minnesota O-line that could be without left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who missed practice Tuesday.
Watt looks unstoppable at the moment and will be teeing off against a QB who's been sacked eight times in his last four games and was taken down three times by the Lions in Week 13. Minnesota’s O-line allows the eighth-most pressure in the league and will have their hands full with Watt who is back to full strength.
Defensive player props aren’t widely available, but bet365 has the Over 0.5 Watt sacks listed at -152, which we have no problem hitting to win a full unit. Most other books have his Over 4.5 total tackles (best price at -140 at William Hill) which we’d play if the sack prop was unavailable.
Minnesota ranks in the Top 6 in plays per game and will give plenty of opportunities for Watt to blow things up in the backfield. Cheering for sacks is one of the more exciting prop bets there is when watching the game. We’d also hit any total sack prop of 4.5.
PICK: T.J. Watt Over 0.5 sacks (-152 at bet365)
