With proper NFL playoff weather hitting hard this weekend, the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers had to wait until today for their Wild Card Round battle — just don’t expect offensive fireworks to warm up another cold day at Highmark Stadium.
The latest NFL odds have the Bills as heavy favorites, but the challenging conditions may level the playing field, with Mike Tomlin’s Steelers very comfortable in a physical, low-scoring contest.
We may not see eye-popping receiving numbers here, but there are still plenty of NFL player props to dig into ahead of what should be an old-school postseason clash. Here are my three favorite NFL picks in addition to your Steelers vs. Bills picks and predictions.
If that's not enough, we've also got a spotlight on Josh Allen odds to round out your betting slate.
Steelers vs Bills Wild Card Round props
- Harris Over 59.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Allen Over 38.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
- Shakir Over 31.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM) 50% boost available
Picks made on January 14 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Steelers vs Bills props
Prop bet #1: Harris helps himself
The Pittsburgh Steelers were not shy about feeding Najee Harris the rock down the stretch, and I see no reason why that formula won’t roll over to this Wild Card Round matchup.
Harris is in the midst of his best spell as a Steeler, and the heavy volume seems to suit him. He had 26 carries for 112 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens in Week 18, a week after rushing 27 times for 122 yards and two scores against the Seahawks.
A cold weather game suggests that Harris will once again be the focal point for Pittsburgh, and the offensive line play has been a plus for the visitors. As steady as Mason Rudolph has been since stepping into the starting job again, I see the Steelers taking a cautious approach with how much they ask him to do in such a big spot.
Though the Harris anytime TD prop is tempting, I prefer the Over on his rushing yards total. Jaylen Warren may siphon off some carries, but Harris is still going to have a healthy workload against a Buffalo Bills defense that struggled to contain the Miami backfield last time out.
Rushing props tend to have value when there’s snow and wind in the forecast, and I’m jumping on the Harris bandwagon for a Steelers team with upset potential.
Najee Harris prop: Over 59.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: Amped up Allen
While the frigid weather in Buffalo opens the door for a Steelers upset, it also plays to some of Josh Allen’s strengths. He’s got the arm strength to overcome windy conditions and the power to hurt Pittsburgh in the running game.
Allen finished the regular season with two impressive outings as a rusher, including 15 carries for 67 yards against the Dolphins in the AFC East clincher, and I expect a similar volume on Monday, with the Bills’ gameplan likely to skew heavily toward the ground game.
Allen is an obvious red zone threat for Buffalo, but it’s his ability to scramble on big third downs that should keep the Over in play for his rushing yards prop.
With Stefon Diggs on the field, the Steelers can’t afford to overcommit to stopping the run, and Pittsburgh ranked in the bottom half of the league this year with 115 rushing yards allowed per game.
Allen has relied on his legs in previous cold weather January games, including six carries for 66 yards against the Patriots in the 2022 playoffs. I see him thundering for enough yards to cash in the Over on this prop.
Josh Allen prop: Over 38.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Fear Shakir
When Allen chooses to take a shot down the field, Diggs is typically the No. 1 target, but Khalil Shakir has emerged as a vital weapon in this Buffalo offense — and he’s going to have a bigger role here with Gabe Davis sidelined.
Shakir was an X-factor for the Bills in last weekend’s win over the Dolphins, finishing with six catches for 105 yards. His versatility allows Buffalo to use him in different ways, and he doesn’t need a lot of volume to get to this generous line.
There’s admittedly a boom-or-bust element to Shakir’s game, but Davis’ absence opens up more targets alongside Diggs and Dalton Kincaid.
Sure, this is just his second year in the NFL, but he stepped up when called on in last season’s playoffs. He went past this number in both his 2022 postseason outings, earning Allen’s trust in big spots.
If the Bills can lull the Steelers to sleep with a steady diet of running plays, watch for Allen to pounce and connect with Shakir for big plays.
Khalil Shakir prop: Over 31.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM) 50% boost available
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