Ticket resellers are slashing prices for Sunday’s matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Washington Commanders, as this Week 3 matchup is now a less sexy "Battle of the Backups" with Drew Lock in for the injured Sam Darnold, and Marcus Mariota expected to get the start in place of Jayden Daniels.
My early Seahawks vs. Commanders predictions note that the cost of entry to Northwest Stadium isn't the only thing tanking, with this Over/Under total headed south as well. My NFL picks measure the market movement around those QB shakeups and give out early leans for September 27.
Seahawks vs Commanders predictions
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Early Seahawks vs Commanders spread pick: Commanders +7.5
The look-ahead spread before Jayden Daniels injured his elbow in Week 2 listed the Washington Commanders as 1.5-point home underdogs.
With the Commanders getting cracked by Dallas and the Seattle Seahawks slamming Arizona, this spread re-opened Washington +5.5 and has ticked up past the key number of a touchdown.
Marcus Mariota is a veteran QB with a lot of starting experience, especially after Daniels missed most of 2025. I see this inflated line as a chance to buy back the home underdog facing a QB2.
Drew Lock looked good against Arizona’s defense in Week 2, but you’ll want to take those results with a grain of salt. This is a second straight road game for the Seahawks against a defense that’s trying to create chaos with an aggressive pass rush.
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Early Seahawks vs Commanders total pick: Over 40.5
This Over/Under total has ticked down from 41.5 to 40.5, and some shops are showing 40 points for Week 3.
The Seattle defense is elite and is dragging this number down after two stellar showings to start 2026. And with a backup QB on the other side of the line, I can see why the market is moving that way.
However, this number will reach a tipping point should it hit sub-38 points.
As mentioned, Mariota can carry an offense better than most QB2s, and Lock will be entering his third game as the Seattle starter, getting another week to work with the first teamers. There could be more meat — or points — on the bone with these two offenses.
I’m not taking the Over just yet. I’ll lean that way in hopes we see the total continue to slim before Sunday.
Seahawks vs Commanders odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Seahawks vs Commanders spread: Commanders +7.5
- Seahawks vs Commanders moneyline: Seahawks 73%, Commanders 27%
- Seahawks vs Commanders Over/Under: 40.5
How to watch Seahawks vs Commanders
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Landover, MD
- Venue: Northwest Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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