Saints vs 49ers Week 12 Picks and Predictions: Niners' Defense Should Give Saints Headaches

Under Andy Dalton, New Orleans is going to have a tough time navigating the waters of getting first downs against San Francisco's elite defense on Sunday. Find out more in our Saints vs. 49ers betting picks.

Last Updated: Nov 27, 2022 8:34 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

The New Orleans Saints will be significant underdogs when they take on the surging San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday afternoon. 

The Saints are fresh off their fourth win of the season against the free-falling Rams, but their 1-3 road record pales in comparison to being 3-3 at home this season. The 49ers have won three in a row and are 3-1 in their own building in 2022.

Will San Francisco secure their fourth straight victory this Sunday? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Saints vs 49ers on November 27.

Saints vs 49ers best odds

Saints vs 49ers picks and predictions

The 49ers are getting hot at the right time of the year, and the Saints should not slow them down in San Francisco on Sunday afternoon.

The Niners are fresh off their most dominant victory of 2022, as they crushed the Cardinals 38-10 in Mexico City last Monday night. It was good for their third straight triumph, as they handled their business against both the Rams and the Chargers in consecutive contests before that.

Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t thrown a single interception in any of those three tilts, tossing six touchdowns by contrast. He’s averaging 234.3 passing yards per game during this streak and has completed 73.2% of his attempts.

Trade deadline acquisition Christian McCaffrey has given this San Francisco offense a shot in the arm, as he’s averaging 110.7 scrimmage yards over his last three outings. But not to be overlooked are the contributions Elijah Mitchell is giving this unit since coming off the IL two weeks ago.

Mitchell has gone for 148 yards on 27 carries (5.5 yards per touch) and could be primed for another big day against the Saints’ 23rd-ranked run defense (132.1 yards allowed per game). Lead backs have gone for 61 yards (Cam Akers), 99 yards (Najee Harris), and 93 yards (Kenyan Drake) against New Orleans in successive weeks.

While the Saints' rush defense has tapered off, so has their offense during their current 1-2 slide. They’ve averaged only 225 total yards over their last three games, making head coach Dennis Allen’s decision to stick with Andy Dalton at quarterback over Jameis Winston all the more perplexing. His solution to New Orleans’ offensive slump has been to fold in more Taysom Hill gadget plays.

It feels as though, regardless of who takes the snaps for the Saints, they’ll be hard-pressed to make much headway against the Niners' rock-solid defense that is allowing a league-low 283.9 yards per contest.

My best bet: 49ers -9.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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Saints vs 49ers spread analysis

When the Saints have struggled through the air this year, running back Alvin Kamara has been there to keep opposing defenses honest. However, Kamara has also slowed down as the season has progressed, as he’s rushed for only 98 total yards over his last three games (29 carries). Adding to concerns surrounding Kamara’s potential production this week is the fact that he missed Thursday’s practice with an undisclosed illness. 

San Francisco has specialized in shutting down opposing ground games this season, allowing an NFL-low 81.1 rushing yards per contest. James Conner (42 yards) and Austin Ekeler (24 yards) have joined the list of tailbacks who were flustered by this unit in 2022 in back-to-back weeks. 

Bettors have plenty of positive trends to consider with the 49ers, as this club has covered in four of their last five games against teams with losing records and are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight home games. The Saints are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with winning records and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.

Saints vs 49ers Over/Under analysis

Total bettors should side with the Under in this matchup despite a fairly low line. The Under is 4-1 in the 49ers’ last five games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, which suggests their offense could take a small step backward in Week 12.

The Saints’ stoppers are a modest 25th in points allowed per game (24.3), but they’re still no pushovers, as they demonstrated when they shut out the Raiders in Week 8. New Orleans is third in the NFL in red zone defense, allowing only 48.4% of opponent trips to that area to turn into touchdowns. San Francisco has not been incredibly efficient in this department, ranking 15th in red zone offense (57.6% touchdown rate).

It’s not far-fetched to think the Niners might end up leaving some points on the table by being forced to settle for field goals. As we mentioned before, the 49ers are tops in the NFL when it comes to total defense. They’re also third in scoring defense, surrendering only 17.3 points per game. The Saints have managed only 16.7 points per game over their last three tilts.

Trend bettors should note that the Saints are 5-1 to the Under in their last six games against teams with winning records, while the Under is 5-1 in the 49ers’ last six home games.

Saints vs 49ers betting trend to know

The Under is 13-5 in the 49ers’ last 18 overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs 49ers. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. 49ers.

Saints vs 49ers game info

Location: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Date: Sunday, November 27, 2022
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
Opening odds: 49ers -8, 42 O/U

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