Best NFL Sack Prop Picks for Week 2: Garrett Takes Aim in Rivalry Match

You won't find sack props as easily as the markets for skill position players, but several bigger books are starting to put out sack odds on the top pass rushers in the NFL.

That's who I'm targetting with my favorite sack picks for this week as I bet on several All-Pro edge rushers while also backing young and hungry Aidan Hutchinson against a hurting Seahawks offensive line. Here are my favorite sack prop bets for Week 2 of the NFL season.

Latest Week 2 sack props

• Aidan Hutchinson Over 0.75 sacks
• Nick Bosa Over 0.75 sacks
• Matthew Judon to record a sack
• Myles Garrett Over 0.75 sacks

Picks made on September 16 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

Best Week 1 sack picks

Seahawks vs Lions sack prop: Aidan Hutchinson

Aidan Hutchinson didn't get a sack last week but he had seven pressures (four hurries and three quarterback hits) to help the Detroit Lions upset the Chiefs. The second pick in the 2022 draft, Hutchinson showed improvement throughout his rookie campaign and ended the year with 11 sacks. 

In Week 2, Hutch and the Lions host the Seattle Seahawks, who were embarrassed at home last week. Seattle's offensive line is a complete disaster at the moment. Not only are they coming off a year where they allowed 46 sacks but both offensive tackles went down with injuries during the second half of last week's game against the Rams. 

With Charles Cross and Abe Lucas sidelined, the Seahawks were forced to sign 41-year-old Jason Peters earlier this week. Peters won't be ready for Sunday so Stone Forsyth and Jake Curhan will be the bookends. Forsythe has started just one game in his career and Curhan hasn't started since 2021 when he made five starts and had a pass-blocking grade of just 37.2. Regardless of who Hutchinson matches up against, he will get to Geno Smith.

Aidan Hutchinson: Over 0.75 sacks (-125 at DraftKings)

49ers vs Rams sack prop: Nick Bosa

No training camp, no problem for San Francisco 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa. The fifth-year All-Pro reached a contract agreement with the Niners just days before their Week 1 showdown against Pittsburgh.

And though Bosa didn't get a sack in that contest, he did have four QB pressures and should be even better this week after shaking off the rust. Bosa was named Defensive Player of the Year in 2022 after racking up 18.5 sacks and 3.5 of those came in two games against these very Los Angeles Rams.

The Rams didn't allow much pressure from Seattle's mediocre pass rush last week but left tackle Joe Noteboom surrendered five sacks and 23 pressures in just six games in 2022. Noteboom was limited in practice earlier this week due to an ankle injury and while that won't keep him out of the lineup on Sunday, it will make it even tougher for him to handle Bosa.

Nick Bosa: Over 0.75 sacks (+100 at DraftKings)

Sunday Night Football sack prop: Matthew Judon

It's tough finding betting value in the sack props market on Sunday Night Football. The New England Patriots have left tackle Trent Brown, both starting guards Cole Strange and Mike Onwenu, and top backup guard Sidy Sow all listed as questionable. 

However, Strange and Onwenu have been practicing in a limited capacity, and even when they were sidelined last week, Mac Jones was sacked just twice. That was despite throwing the ball 54 times and playing against a ferocious Eagles pass rush. This week, the Pats face a far less dangerous Miami Dolphins defense. 

Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler are quality interior linemen but they aren't great pass rushers and their "to record a sack" prop payout (+155 for Sieler and +165 for Wilkins) is surprisingly low considering that they combined for just seven sacks in 34 games last season. 

You're getting almost the same number (+140) for Patriots edge rusher Matthew Judon, who racked up 15.5 sacks a year ago. Sure, Tua Tagovailoa tends to get rid of the ball quickly but Judon had five tackles and a sack against Tua and the Phins in the season opener last year. 

He also had six pressures and a sack versus the Eagles elite offensive line last week despite usually lining up against All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson. As one of the best pass rushers in the league, Judon has far better value than any Miami player on the sacks board at the moment.

Matthew Judon: To record a sack - Yes (+140 at bet365)

Monday Night football sack prop: Myles Garrett 

The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers have one of the most heated rivalries in the NFL and Myles Garrett usually finds himself in the thick of things. The four-time All-Pro has picked up 16 sacks in each of the last two seasons and he's poised for another big year in 2023. 

Garrett racked up six pressures and had a sack against Cincinatti's inept line last week and gets another juicy matchup on Monday Night Football. The Steelers allowed a league-high pressure rate of 55.9% last week and left tackle Dan Moore Jr. gave up nine pressures with a pass-blocking grade of just 22.8. 

New defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz moved Garrett around a lot last week but he typically plays at right end. He should have a field day against Moore or rookie Broderick Jones, who could step into the left tackle role on a reshuffled line if RT Chuks Orakafor is unable to play. 

Myles Garrett: Over 0.25 sacks (-160 at DraftKings)

How are sack props calculated?

It's important to read the wording associated with the sack props at each specific sportsbook. Most books will list an Over/Under number which is set at 0.25 or 0.75, since players can be credited for 0.5 sacks for sharing a sack with a teammate. Other books will mark a sack as a "yes" or "no" proposition in which case half a sack will typically count as the player recording a sack. 

Best strategies to bet sack props

There are several factors to consider when handicapping sack totals. The most obvious involves the defensive player himself. How often does he get sacks both in terms of his recent history and also over a larger sample size, and does he consistently generate pressure. A player might have picked up sacks in three consecutive games but if he doesn't consistently beat his blocker, he's likely due for regression. On the other side of things, a player might be held off the sack sheet in four straight games, but if he's constantly pressuring opposing passers, it's only a matter of time before he gets a sack.

Who the defender is matching up against is also an important factor. How well does the projected starter opposite from him perform as a pass blocker and is that opposing player injured or playing out of position? In addition, is the offense able or willing to double-team the defender? Certain quarterbacks also hold on to the ball longer, have less pocket awareness, or don't have the mobility to evade pass rushers.

It's also important to consider how the rest of his team will affect a player's ability to get sacks. Perhaps his defensive coordinator is using him more in coverage, perhaps another defender is poaching his sacks or allowing him to get easier matchups. Improved play in the secondary can also lead to coverage sacks.

Game situation also matters since an offense that throws the ball a lot or is expected to play from behind, will also give a defense more opportunity to get sacks. 

Other defensive player betting props

Sportsbooks are starting to put out other props for defensive players. That includes markets involving tackles (both solo tackles and combined tackles) as well as interceptions. 

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