Best NFL Sack and Tackle Props for Week 7: Gardeck Creates Chaos Against Seattle

There's a common narrative that after NFL players ball out in contract years, they underperform after getting the bag.

Alex Anzalone and Josh Metellus are both proving that to be a myth and have been tackling machines for their respective teams this season. I'm looking at both of their tackle props this week in the NFL odds while also betting on Dennis Gardeck to get a sack at big plus money. 

Here are my favorite sack and tackle NFL picks when it comes to the Week 7 odds. 

This week’s best sack and tackle props

• Leonard Williams to record a sack - No
• Dennis Gardeck to record a sack - Yes
• Josh Sweat Under 0.25 sacks
• Alex Anzalone Over 4.5 solo tackles
• Josh Metellus Over 5.5 total tackles

Picks made on October 21 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of our sack picks and our tackle props

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Best Week 7 sack picks

Commanders vs Giants: Leonard Williams

Leonard Williams has an impressive 80.2 pass-rush grade per Pro Football Focus, but the New York Giants defensive end has recorded just half a sack in six games this year. That lone half sack came in Week 3 when Williams lined up on the edge, and he primarily sets up shaded towards the left side of the interior.

That's actually the best part of the Washington Commanders offensive line and where right guard Sam Cosmi (72.1 pass-blocking grade and just one sack allowed) resides. It's also worth mentioning that winds are expected to swirl at 21 mph in this contest, which should mean fewer dropbacks for Washington quarterback Sam Howell.

Leonard Williams prop: To record a sack - No (-166 at bet365)

Cardinals vs Seahawks: Dennis Gardeck

Arizona Cardinals outside linebacker Dennis Gardeck has been one of their few bright spots this season and leads the team with four sacks and a pass-rush grade of 75.3. He hasn't picked up a sack in his last two games but still had four hurries in those contests and continues to get consistent snaps as a pass rusher.

The Seattle Seahawks haven't surrendered that many sacks this season but they rank 22nd in pass-block grade and gave up four sacks last week. They are also at their weakest on the edge, with a whopping 68.8% of the pressure on QB Geno Smith coming from the two tackle spots.

Gardeck's ability to blitz and shift sides should encourage Jonathan Gannon to unleash him in this matchup. With Gardeck paying out at +330 to get a sack, this is a bet you've got to play.

Dennis Gardeck Prop: To record a sack - Yes (+330 at bet365) 

SNF Dolphins vs Eagles: Josh Sweat

The Miami Dolphins have allowed just six sacks this season and four of those came in a single game against the Bills in Week 4. A big reason for that is how quickly quarterback Tua Tagovailoa makes his reads and gets rid of the ball. Another factor has been the solid play of left tackle Kendall Lamm, who has stepped up with Terron Armstead injured.

Lamm might not be a Pro Bowl talent like Armstead but he has an impressive 76.2 pass blocking grade in 311 snaps at left tackle. He'll face off against Philadelphia Eagles edge rusher Josh Sweat on Sunday night and while Sweat has 3.5 sacks this season, he'll have a tough time getting to Tua.

Take the Under 0.25 on Sweat's sack total.

Josh Sweat Prop: Under 0.25 sacks (-145 at DraftKings) 

Best Week 7 sack picks

Lions vs Ravens: Alex Anzalone

The Baltimore Ravens love to run the ball in any weather and rank second in the NFL in rushing play percentage (51.8%). They should run the ball even more in Sunday's game against the Detroit Lions considering winds are expected to gust at around 19 mph for most of the game. That should mean plenty of tackling opportunities for Lions linebacker Alex Anzalone. 

Anzalone was signed to a three-year $18.75 million contract in the offseason and is having a career year in a scheme that lets him flow more to the ball. He has significantly cut down on his missed tackles and his overall PFF grade of 88.2 from Weeks 4-6 ranks fourth among qualified linebackers. 

Anzalone racked up seven solo tackles against the Bucs last week and had eight solo tackles versus Carolina in Week 5. Bet the Over 4.5 on his solo tackles this week.

Alex Anzalone Prop: Over 4.5 solo tackles (-115 at DraftKings)

MNF 49ers vs Vikings: Josh Metellus

After the Minnesota Vikings signed backup safety Josh Metellus to a two-year $13 extension in the offseason, Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah praised the 25-year-old as the team's unsung hero. Metellus might not technically be a starter but he has logged more than 90% of Minnesota's defensive snaps over the last four games.

Metellus is an important cog on Minnesota's average defense and with other Vikings defenders not making many plays, he's been stuffing the stat sheet. It also helps his numbers that the Vikings are last in the NFL in average time of possession, which means that their defense is often on the field. 

The O/U for Metellus' total tackles is set at 5.5 and he has gone over that number in every contest this season while averaging 7.0 per game. The Vikes will have a tough time slowing down the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night but Metellus should get plenty of tackles against a San Fran offense that will control the ball.

Josh Metellus Prop: Over 5.5 tackles and assists (-120 at bet365)

How are sack and tackle props calculated?

It's important to read the wording associated with the sack props at each specific sportsbook. Most books will list an Over/Under number which is set at 0.25 or 0.75, since players can be credited for 0.5 sacks for sharing a sack with a teammate. Other books will mark a sack as a "yes" or "no" proposition in which case half a sack will count as the player recording a sack. 

Books often have props for solo tackles, assists, and tackles which are made up of both solo tackles and assisted.

Best strategies to bet sack and tackle props

There are several factors to consider when handicapping sack totals. The most obvious involves the defensive player himself. How often does he get sacks both in terms of his recent history and also over a larger sample size, and does he consistently generate pressure. A player might have picked up sacks in three consecutive games but if he doesn't consistently beat his blocker, he's likely due for regression. On the other side of things, a player might be held off the sack sheet in four straight games, but if he's constantly pressuring opposing passers, it's only a matter of time before he gets a sack.

Who the defender is matching up against is also an important factor. How well does the projected starter opposite from him perform as a pass blocker and is that opposing player injured or playing out of position? In addition, is the offense able or willing to double-team the defender? Certain quarterbacks also hold on to the ball longer, have less pocket awareness, or don't have the mobility to evade pass rushers.

It's also important to consider how the rest of his team will affect a player's ability to get sacks. Perhaps his defensive coordinator is using him more in coverage, perhaps another defender is poaching his sacks or allowing him to get easier matchups. Improved play in the secondary can also lead to coverage sacks.

Game situation also matters since an offense that throws the ball a lot or is expected to play from behind, will also give a defense more opportunity to get sacks. 

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