Ravens vs 49ers MNF Prop Bets: CMC, Lamar Lead Offensive Charge

Prop bet #1: Lamar leans on legs

The addition of Todd Monken as offensive coordinator in Baltimore has finally given Lamar Jackson the chance to show he’s among the best passers in the NFL. He's on pace to complete a career-high 66.3% of his passes while averaging his most yards per attempt (7.7) since his MVP season in 2019.

The former Heisman winner isn’t just one of the most electric runners in the league, he’s one of the most efficient passers too, and sits fifth in success rate and ninth in CPOE this season. Rather than lean on his arm this week though, Baltimore can exploit the loaded San Francisco 49ers defense by letting him create mismatches as a runner.

The 49ers defense is seventh in EPA per play and fifth in EPA per dropback. Between its pass rush led by Nick Bosa and secondary led by Charvarius Ward, it’s going to be hard for Jackson to beat this defense through the air. Luckily, the 49ers have been shockingly bad against the run.

They’re often leading games so teams get away from the ground game, but Steve Wilks' defense is just 29th in EPA per rush this season. The fact it’s giving up just 89.4 rushing yards per game is slightly misleading because teams have run against San Francisco just 293 times this season, the fewest attempts against in the NFL by 21.

The 49ers are giving up 4.3 yards per attempt, tied for 11th most in the league, and this defense hasn’t seen a rushing attack quite like the Baltimore Ravens' with Jackson at the helm. The offense is sixth in EPA per play this season thanks to a rushing attack that’s first in EPA per rush.

Baltimore is running for 163.8 yards per game, most in the league by over 20 yards, and Jackson is the star that makes it all go. He’s the team's leading rusher with 741 yards — 19th most in the NFL — and averaging 52.9 rushing yards per game.

Without Keaton Mitchell, who was lost for the season to a torn ACL, more will be on Jackson’s plate as a runner, especially with the matchup advantage in this game. The former first-round pick is averaging 61.6 rushing yards per game for his career and has run for 60+ five times this season, including each of his last two games.

Lamar Jackson prop: Over 59.5 rushing yards (-105 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Run CMC

These teams are eerily similar. MVP-level quarterback play, explosive running game, and defense loaded with Pro Bowl talent. And like the 49ers, the Ravens' run defense is the best way to take advantage of them.

Baltimore has been dominant defensively this season, ranking second in both EPA per play and EPA per dropback. Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald has the Ravens holding teams to just 287.9 yards per game, second best in the NFL, and 185.7 passing yards per game, sixth best.

So while the defense is only allowing 102.1 rushing yards per game, it’s the best way to attack this team. Baltimore has seen the fourth-fewest runs against its defense in the league, which has helped keep the rushing yards against number low, but like the 49ers, it’s giving up 4.3 yards per carry and sits 12th in EPA per rush.

Nobody is better at scheming up a run game than Kyle Shanahan and he just so happens to have the best running back in the NFL and a potential MVP odds candidate in Christian McCaffrey.

McCaffrey leads the NFL in rushing yards with 1,292 and should give this Ravens defense all it can handle on the ground. He’s averaging 92.3 rushing yards per game this season and has run for 85+ in nine of 14 games.

He’s also done that in four straight games and since Week 10, he’s averaged 106.6 rushing yards per game. 

Christian McCaffrey prop: Over 84.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Don't mess with Gus!

Baltimore wants to run the ball and the 49ers can be exposed on the ground, it’s the perfect recipe for a Gus Edwards touchdown. With Mitchell out for the season, Gus the Bus has an opportunity to play like his namesake and continue to plunge into the end zone for the 12th time this season.

Without Mitchell, Edwards should see the lion’s share of running back snaps with backup Justice Hill having just 71 carries this season. While Edwards isn’t a bell cow with the way the Ravens have gone with a timeshare backfield for much of the season, he’s still the leading ball carrier on the team with 163 attempts.

Despite averaging just 11.6 attempts per game, the former undrafted free agent has been scoring touchdowns at a ridiculously high clip due to his goal-line work this season. He’s fifth in the NFL in rushing touchdowns and has scored 10 over his last eight games.

Edwards, while not dynamic, is a bruiser who Monken wants to give the rock to in the red zone to keep Jackson from taking punishing hits. As a result, he’s scored at least one touchdown in seven of 14 games this season and in six of his last eight.

Gus Edwards prop: Anytime TD (+150 at bet365)