Rams vs Colts Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 4: Hit the Ground Running

The Indianapolis Colts have ripped off back-to-back wins and will likely have rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson back under center Sunday when they host the Los Angeles Rams in what the Week 4 odds has as a pick ‘em with a total of 46. 

Despite getting his mobile QB back, very few backs in the league are getting the volume and snaps that Indy running back Zack Moss is getting, and with a good matchup and the NFL odds projecting a neutral game script, his rushing total looks like a great spot for a best bet. 

Here are my free NFL picks for Week 4 Rams vs. Colts.

Rams vs Colts odds

Rams vs Colts predictions

Zack Moss currently has a rushing total of 66.5 yards. He’s topped this number easily over his two games where he has carried the ball 48 times for 210 yards. He has 90% of the team’s running-back carries, is on the field for 85% of the offensive snaps, and has played every third down. He doesn’t get off the field and will have a big role on Sunday where he should top this rushing total.

Anthony Richardson is back after suffering a concussion. The rookie QB had 10 rushes in Week 1 with six of those being designed. Head coach Shane Steichen said they can’t take that aspect out of his game, but it’s tough to see them dial up a handful of QB-designed runs here.

Even if Richardson does vulture some carries, I’m still expecting this Over. Moss gets all the carries in the backfield and the Indianapolis offense is very fast passed and leads the league in pace of play in a neutral context game script. They’re averaging 70 plays a game and ran 75 last week. There is plenty of volume heading Moss’ way on Sunday.

The matchup is decent, too. The Rams rank 24th in yards allowed per carry. They’ve only faced 23 rushes a game which is a Bottom-10 mark, so this run defense hasn’t really been beaten up on the ground despite giving up big yardage. That will hopefully change this week as the Colts average 28 rushes per game (8th) and ran the ball 35 times last week in a win over Baltimore. 

Moss could also get some help with the return of center Ryan Kelly. He was inactive in Week 2 where Moss trotted for 122 yards. He was a full participant at practice on Wednesday and Thursday. This is a very good offensive line that has three players drafted in the top 37 of the draft and Pro Football Focus graded as a Top-10 unit.

With Moss handling everything in the backfield and the Colts picking up wins when he does, there is no need for Steichen to deviate from an offensive game plan that is working and that means more yards for Moss. 

My best bet: Zack Moss Over 66.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365) 
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Rams vs Colts same-game parlay

Zack Moss 100+ rushing yards

Anthony Richardson anytime TD

+1,000 at bet365

I'm not getting too complicated here. Moss' role has been huge to date and no other running back is matching his workload. He had 30 carries a week ago and was missing his starting center. With a neutral game script, projected, 27 carries is a floor for Moss' attempts. The milestone is something I'll be betting on individually as well at +425.

Although the concussion does worry me, a Steichen offense will always have value for a QB-rushing TD. Richardson has two rushing TDs on the year and has played fewer than seven quarters. Anywhere near the goal line, he is a threat and I wouldn't bet on a Moss TD this Week at +130 or lower because of it.   

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rams vs Colts spread and Over/Under analysis

The Rams were a slight favorite on the look-ahead and moved to a slight underdog after Week 3. As of Friday, this game has settled into a pick ‘em, even with Anthony Richardson likely back after logging some full practices this week. 

The rookie QB was a 3.5-point dog on the road in Jacksonville in Week 1 — a 31-21 loss where the Colts led by four entering the final quarter — and essentially a pick ‘em in Week 2 vs. Houston where he exited with a concussion.

The difference between Gardner Minshew and Richardson in terms of points is nothing in my opinion so Richardson suiting up does little to move this spread. I still think the Colts are being slightly undervalued here and the Rams are possibly over-valued. 

The Colts just walked into Baltimore with their backup QB  as a 7.5-point dog and won outright vs. a very good defense. Now the market is buying the Rams who have disappointed in back-to-back weeks after beating up on one of the worst defenses in football in Seattle in Week 1. 

Looking at injuries, the Rams could be without Tyler Higbee who was DNP at practice on Thursday. Through three games, he has a 12% target share and sits fourth in air-yard share. His possible absence doesn’t move the needle or the total for me as that could mean more targets for Tutu Atwell and Van Jefferson. It’s hard to see more targets than Puka Nucau’s 35% target share.

The Colts might be without DL DeForest Buckner but could get starting center Ryan Kelly back. The former first-rounder was inactive last week vs. Baltimore. Kelly was a full participant on Wednesday and Thursday.

The total was 45.5 on the look-ahead and hit as high as 47 this week before hitting 46 on Friday. It’s a tough spot as the Colts are the fastest-paced team while the Rams are in the top 10. However, this Indy defense might be better than expected and currently ranks 7th in EPA/play.

Baltimore managed just 19 points with 32 minutes of offensive possession vs. the Colts while the Texans had over 200 yards of offense in garbage time in the fourth quarter of Week 2. The market is unsure about this total as groups keep hitting it and then others get it on the other side. My guess is it settles at 46 as the injury report on Friday should not affect the number. The weather also looks perfect with no rain and solid 70-degree temps expected.

Rams vs Colts game info

Rams vs Colts latest injuries

Rams vs Colts weather

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