Raiders vs Bills Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 2: Let James Cook

It’s a short week for the Buffalo Bills but the NFL odds have tabbed them as -9.5 point home favorite vs. a cross-country traveling team in the Las Vegas Raiders. Are these Do these Week 2 NFL odds mean a victory is more than guaranteed at Highmark Stadium, especially with some injury concerns on the Las Vegas offense?

With the game script in his favor and Josh Allen coming off a poor decision-making game vs. the Jets, James Cook could be leaned on heavily between the 20s and bettors are starting to pile on his rushing total, but has the number passed the buy point?

Here are my free NFL Week 2 picks for Raiders vs. Bills. 

Raiders vs Bills odds

Raiders vs Bills predictions

James Cook took 12 of the 15 running-back carries in Week 1 where he topped his Over 44.5 rushing yard total vs. a very stingy defense in the Jets who have been a Top-7 unit since last season.

The Buffalo Bills RB is the man between the 20s for the Bills and with the home side sitting as 9.5-point favorites, Cook and the run rate could take off in Week 2. 

With a positive game script on the way and the majority of the work between the 20s, projecting a 15-plus carry game for Cook is not out of line. Josh Allen had a mistake-filled opener which could also increase the rushing workload for the Buffalo backfield.

Cook saw 41 snaps to Latavius Murray’s 15 as it looks like Murray and Damien Harris will take the goal-line work. Cook also has more experience in this offensive system and if he were to get the close-out carries late in the fourth, the Over 50.5 rushing yards could be sweatless. 

Cook’s rushing total opened at 47.5 and was one I got on and posted on the Covers’ NFL pick page on Wednesday, but the market is heading north but is still a play for me at 50.5. I’d play it to 52.5/53.5. At four yards per carry, Cook would need just 13 carries to top this modest total.

The Las Vegas Raiders are traveling across the country for this game and finished 24th in success rate vs. the rush last week against the Broncos and 20th in EPA/play. Defensive metrics don’t always carry over from year to year, but the Raiders’ defense was a mess in 2022 ranking 30th in EPA/play and 30th in success rate vs. the run.

Cooks has a great matchup, solid opportunities, and the game script is as good as it gets. The Over on this modest rushing total could get crushed and his Milestones are certainly in play here. His 75-plus rush yards is +320 and 100-plus at +1075 at bet365. Seventeen carries at his career average of 4.5 YPC works out to 76.5 rushing yards. His total yards market is also appetizing with the work he got in the passing game and leading all starting running backs in aDOT in Week 1. 

My best bet: James Cook Over 50.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel) 

Raiders vs Bills same-game parlay

Cook 75+ rushing yards

Jacobs 50+ rushing yards

Kincaid 25+ receiving yards

+900 at bet365

It's going to be a big game for Cook who I'm hitting the Over on his 75-yard milestone that is paying +320 by itself and is live.

The Buffalo defense got eaten up on the ground and Josh Jacobs has a game under his belt after missing most of the offseason and preseason. He had 19 carries in Week 1 and double-digit carries are almost certain.

Dalton Kincaid saw lots of snaps in the slot and outside. His role will grow and he is now the No.3/4 pass-catcher on this team. Las Vegas gave up seven grabs and 56 yards to Denver's top tight ends last week.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Raiders vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis

Buffalo was a 10-point home favorite for their opener on the look-ahead but reopened at -9 and has hit as low as -8.5 and a high point of -9.5. Buffalo was 4-5 ATS as a touchdown-or-more favorite last year including in the playoffs. At home, they finished 3-4 ATS as a 7-point or more favorite with three of those losses coming against divisional opponents.

The Buffalo offense did not look impressive in prime time on Monday and a lot of that was Josh Allen and his decision-making. He was responsible for four turnovers and still took the game to overtime. They were minus-3 in the turnover battle, had more penalties, gave up a special teams TD, and were outsacked 5-to-3. Those things likely won’t happen vs. a Las Vegas defense that made Russell Wilson look decent in Week 1 and was a Bottom-5 unit last year, 

Buffalo is, to nobody’s surprise, the highest confident survivor pick of Week 2 but can the defense show up which is the biggest question with the double-digit cover?

Last week vs. Zach Wilson, the defense allowed 5.5 yards per play and got gouged on the ground to the tune of 6.1 yards per carry and 172 rushing yards. There are plenty of question marks with this Buffalo defense that added zero bodies in the offseason and lost its DC in Leslie Frazier. Sean McDermott is calling plays on the defense and will have to stop a Las Vegas rush attack that supported the league’s 2022 rush leader Josh Jacobs.

However, if Las Vegas gets behind early, the mid-week injury report could be crushing. DaVante Adams was a DNP on practice on Wednesday but it wouldn’t surprise me if it was more veteran rest-related. He ran a route on 100% of the team’s dropbacks in Week 1 but the concussion to Jakobi Myers (9/81/2) is serious and he was a DNP Wednesday. Depth receiver DeAndre Carter also missed practice. The Bills might not be the defense they were two seasons ago, but Las Vegas might not be bringing the best backdoor offense to Buffalo on Sunday.

The total was at 47.5 on the lookahead and has been bet down to as low as 46.5 as of Wednesday with most books sitting at a flat 47. Looking at the pace of play, the Bills ranked 28th in Week 1 while Las Vegas wasn’t far behind at 24th.

Looking at props and usage, Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs dominated the WR snaps as the Bills are moving toward a higher 12-personnel usage. Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Know, and Davis all finished with a 10.2% target share. Kincaid saw his targets very close to the line of scrimmage and played 54 to Knox’s 57 snaps where 39 of Kincaid's snaps were in the slot or outside. 

Las Vegas had just four TE/WRs with receptions in Week 1 and three of those guys were DNP on Wednesday’s practice. Austin Hooper could see more targets if Adams, Myers, and/or Carter sit.  

Raiders vs Bills betting trend to know

The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.30 Units / 21% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs Bills.

Raiders vs Bills game info

Raiders vs Bills latest injuries

Raiders vs Bills weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic