A fresh batch of odds is on the board, which means it’s time to make your NFL Week 11 picks.
Whether you’re wagering on spreads or totals, the key to cashing in is getting the best number to back up your bets. That means pouncing on any soft spots in the opening numbers or waiting for the market to move, opening up value to buy back later in the week.
Here are my best NFL picks to “Bet Now” and some sides and totals to keep an eye on for later.
NFL predictions: Week 11 bet now, bet later picks
- Bears at Vikings (-2.5): Bet Now
- Chiefs at Broncos (+3.5): Bet Later
- Buccaneers at Bills (Over 49.5): Bet Now
- Cowboys at Raiders (Under 50.5): Bet Later
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5): Bet Now
The surprising Chicago Bears have won six of their last seven and travel to the Land of Lakes in Week 11 to take on the rival Minnesota Vikings for their second matchup of the season.
Minnesota edged Chicago on the road in Week 1, thanks to a fantastic fourth quarter from quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who spurred a 21-point rally in the final 15 minutes.
McCarthy and the Vikes opened as 3-point home chalk versus the Bears and pose a much stiffer test than the teams featured in Chicago’s winning run.
The Bears have bullied some bad defensive teams, knocking off the likes of the Giants, Bengals, Saints, Commanders, Raiders, and Cowboys. Those clubs all sit near the bottom of the NFL in many advanced (and not-so-advanced) stats.
Minnesota lost 27-19 to Baltimore on Sunday, but didn’t play poorly, at least not on defense. The Vikings limited Lamar Jackson & Co. to just 4.9 yards per play and 2-for-5 in the red zone. However, 13 penalties (101 yards against) on both sides of the ball and three turnovers made things look a lot worse than it was.
Chicago QB Caleb Williams faces a blitz-happy Minnesota stop unit that runs a zone base behind that chaos. The second-year QB struggles under duress (and runs around like his ass is on fire) and has significant issues passing against zone schemes. He went 21 of 35 passing for 210 yards and one TD in Week 1.
If you’re not buying into the Bears’ winning ways, make it known: bet the Vikings -2.5 right now and avoid a move to a field goal or higher.
Best odds to bet Vikings -2.5 right now
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+3.5): Bet Later
The Denver Broncos get a mini-bye before hosting the rival Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11. And while Denver extended its winning streak to seven games against Las Vegas on Thursday, it wasn’t a pretty victory by any means.
That lingering bad taste from the Broncos, combined with Kansas City’s public appeal – coupled with “Andy Reid off a bye” bettors – will pump up this point spread later in the week. The opener was Chiefs -3.5, but I could see this closing at -4 or -4.5 – an underrated key number that consistently gives favorites fits when it comes to ATS success.
Denver is the best defense Kansas City has faced in a while, with the Broncos sitting Top 5 in many advanced pass defense measurements. The Broncos also have their fingers crossed when it comes to getting star cornerback Patrick Surtain back from injury.
Patrick Mahomes finished 28-for-42 passing for 266 yards and was sacked four times in his last run-in with the Denver defense in Week 10 last season. That was a fugly 16-14 win by Kansas City as 7-point home chalk.
If you’re not buying into what we watched on Thursday (those mid-week games produce weird results), wait out this AFC West war and see how many points you can get with the Broncos at home.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (Over 49.5): Bet Now
The Buffalo Bills are in a bad mood in Week 11. Buffalo got embarrassed in Miami this weekend, falling back in the AFC pecking order. Defense continues to be the sore spot for the Bills, allowing the Dolphins to roll for 370 yards on an average of 7.0 yards per play.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can poke that same soft spot, especially if they can get some top skill players and offensive linemen back on the field. Tampa was without a bunch of bodies on that side of the ball in Week 10’s loss to New England, yet still put up 371 yards on a very stout Patriots stop unit.
As for the Bucs’ defense, it does a great job stuffing the run (which will force Buffalo to pass more) but is susceptible to big plays through the air. Tampa Bay gave up a couple of “home run” TDs to Drake Maye and the New England passing attack.
We also have two very good quarterbacks in Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield, who are exceptional at keeping plays alive when things break down.
This Over/Under opened as short as 49.5 points, with sharper books going higher at 50 and other shops already moving to 50.5 O/U. Books won’t wait around if Over play keeps coming early, so make sure you get the Over below the key number of 51 points.
Best odds to bet Over 49.5 right now
Dallas Cowboys at Las Vegas Raiders (Under 50.5): Bet Later
Two terrible defenses clash in a non-conference contest on Monday Night Football in Week 11, prompting bookies to open this total on the other side of 50 points.
The Dallas Cowboys’ pass defense is dreadful, but Matt Eberflus’ zone-centric schemes could give Las Vegas Raiders QB Geno Smith trouble – if Smith suits up after finishing Thursday’s loss with a limp (quad injury). Smith’s career kryptonite is zone coverage with very dramatic splits between man and zone output.
Las Vegas’ defense has given up some big scores this season, but sits middle of the road in many advanced stats, including EPA allowed per play, success rate, and Defensive DVOA at FTN.
The Raiders also run a lot of zone coverage and keep safeties high to protect against big plays. Las Vegas has allowed only 22 passing plays of 20 yards or more and allows an average of 6.5 yards per pass attempt.
If this total ticks up to the key number of 51 points, the Under could present value on the buy-back later in the week.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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