Plus-money props are popping this week with value in unexpected spots.
In Las Vegas, a rising receiver could take on a larger role coming out of the bye. A quarterback facing a perceived tough matchup has seen his yardage line drop too far, creating buy-low appeal. My NFL picks also see a backup running back in a run-heavy offense seizing an expanded workload if his team’s starter remains limited.
Here are three plus-money props and long shot Overs worth a closer look.
NFL Week 9 Predictions: Best plus money bets
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Tre Tucker |
Over 3.5 receptions | +130 |
 Bo Nix |
250+ passing yards | +250 |
 Emanuel Wilson |
50+ rushing yards | +280 |
Tre Tucker Over 3.5 receptions
The Las Vegas Raiders come out of the bye at full health, but Tre Tucker has been clearing this number even with Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers active.
Tucker’s seeing a full snap share and has gone over this line in three straight games — including back-to-back outings with 5+ catches.
This week sets up well as it’s indoors, the Raiders are likely to face negative game script, and both Meyers (trade rumors) and Bowers (injury concerns) carry uncertainty. Tucker could emerge as a key target in this offense coming off the bye.
The Jacksonville Jaguars rank Bottom 6 in receptions allowed to opposing WRs, and The BLITZ projects Tucker for 3.99 catches, giving some value to the over.
Bo Nix 250+ passing yards
Bo Nix has caught fire over his last five quarters, leading the Denver Broncos to 77 points while showing clear improvement in Sean Payton’s newly urgent offense. The passing game has diversified — Troy Franklin is emerging, Pat Bryant’s usage is up in 3-WR sets, and both backs are active through the air.
This week, Nix’s passing total has dropped to 199.5 yards after sitting at 239.5 last week — a big adjustment against a tough Houston Texans defense. But he’s 4-1 to the Over on this prop over his last five games, and THE BLITZ projects him for 240 yards, right in range of this milestone.
Yes, the sub-40-point total and matchup cap expectations, but context matters — the Texans’ recent opponents include Mac Jones (193), Sam Darnold (216), Cooper Rush (179), and Cam Ward (108). None exactly explosive passing offenses.
At +250 for 250+ yards, the number bakes in a lot of Houston respect. Given Denver’s recent offensive rhythm and volume, this looks like a live longshot.
Emanuel Wilson 50+ rushing yards
The Green Bay Packers draw a strong matchup vs. the Carolina Panthers this week, regardless of whether Bryce Young starts. The concern is Josh Jacobs, who remains limited with a lingering calf injury. That’s opened the door for Emanuel Wilson to see more work in an offense that runs the ball at the third-highest rate in the league.
Wilson flashed last week in prime time against the Steelers, rushing for 61 yards on 11 carries while looking like the more explosive option. If Jacobs is still hampered, or if Green Bay jumps out to a big lead, Wilson could see an expanded role — including potential closeout duties.
There are multiple paths for this Over to hit, and Wilson has a realistic chance to lead the game in rushing if Carolina splits carries or abandons the run game early.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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