NFL Player Prop Picks & Odds for Week 1

It's time for Week 1 of the NFL season, and the league's biggest stars are healthy and ready to open their years with signature performances.

I'm backing Josh Allen, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Trey McBride to show out in my NFL player props below.

Read on to see all my free NFL picks for Sunday, Sept. 13.

Best Week 1 player props

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Pick	Probability
Josh Allen 2+ passing touchdowns	38%
Jahmyr Gibbs 80+ rushing yards	55%
CeeDee Lamb 1+ touchdown	40%
Trey McBride 7+ receptions	58%
Jalen Hurts 225+ passing yards	42%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Pick #1: Josh Allen 2+ passing touchdowns

Kalshi probability: 38%

The Buffalo Bills are once again among the Super Bowl favorites, and Josh Allen is the league's leading MVP candidate. 

Allen threw for two touchdowns in nine of his first 14 regular-season games last season. He's thrown for at least 25 touchdown passes in each of his last six campaigns, regularly airing it out for multiple scores throughout his career. 

This is a tough matchup against a Houston Texans defense that ranked 3rd in EPA per snap in 2025, but the addition of DJ Moore will give Allen more big play opportunities in the passing game. I like Allen to toss two scores at up to 40% probability.

• Matchup: Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans
• Date/Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 1 p.m. ET
• Location: Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX
• TV: CBS

Pick #2: Jahmyr Gibbs 80+ rushing yards

Kalshi probability: 55%

Jahmyr Gibbs enjoyed another stellar year for the Detroit Lions in 2025, rushing for 1,223 yards and 13 TDs while also picking up another 616 yards in the passing game. That included six performances of 80+ yards on the ground.

Gibbs will have every opportunity to add to that total on Sunday. He's no longer sharing touches with David Montgomery, and with New Orleans Saints defensive coordinator Brandon Staley known for focusing on limiting big plays in the passing game, Gibbs should have plenty of room to run and chances to get big yardage in one-on-one situations.

I'm backing Gibbs to get 80+ rushing yards at 60% or less.

• Matchup: New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions
• Date/Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 1 p.m. ET
• Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
• TV: FOX

Pick #3: CeeDee Lamb 1+ touchdown

Kalshi probability: 40%

CeeDee Lamb picked up more than 1,000 yards receiving for the fifth straight season in 2025, but Dallas Cowboys fans expect more than three touchdowns from the star receiver.

The New York Giants were mediocre against the pass last year, allowing 25 touchdown passes and -0.02 EPA per pass. Lamb took advantage of that in their first meeting, racking up 112 yards on nine catches. 

I'm expecting that same level of production on Sunday and am backing Lamb to get a touchdown to 45%.

• Matchup: Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
• Date/Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 8:20 p.m. ET
• Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
• TV: NBC

Pick #4: Trey McBride 7+ receptions

Kalshi probability: 58%

Every NFL fan knows Trey McBride is going to catch balls. He set a record for tight end receptions last season with 126, and his 237 catches over two years for the Arizona Cardinals is also a record for that span.

While McBride is a popular target at every number of receptions, I see 7+ as the right balance between value and probability. He hit that total on 10 occasions in 2025, and Jacoby Brissett will lean heavily on his tight end against a Los Angeles Chargers team that ranked 10th in the NFL in defensive EPA per pass last year. 

I'm backing McBride to get 7+ receptions at 60% or less. 

• Matchup: Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Chargers
• Date/Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 4:25 p.m. ET
• Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
• TV: CBS

Pick #5: Jalen Hurts 225+ passing yards

Kalshi probability: 42%

Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has an excellent chance to start his season off with big numbers against the Washington Commanders.

The Commanders struggled to contain the passing attack last season, allowing 4,371 yards through the air, the fifth-most in the league. Washington has installed a completely new defense for 2026, and while that will probably lead to more pressure on quarterbacks this season, I'm unconvinced it'll pay dividends right away against a veteran pivot.

Hurts will punish this new-look defense, and I'm backing him to throw for 225+ yards at 50% probability or lower.

• Matchup: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
• Date/Time: Sunday, Sept. 13 at 4:25 p.m. ET
• Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
• TV: FOX

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