NFL Week 2 Picks and Predictions: Bears, Steelers and Falcons All Set For Bounce Backs

Overreaction and recency bias. Two things that plague NFL bettors.

This gruesome twosome isn’t just confined to our NFL picks and predictions, but it’s a duo we dance with in our non-gambling lives as well.

Take my son for example. He loves superheroes. I love superheroes. So, any new superhero movie hitting the theater (and there’s been a lot of them), we see in the cinema. Regardless of the quality of said superhero flick, that latest movie now becomes his favorite of all time.

“Blue Beetle”, “The Flash”, “Guardians of the Galaxy 3”, “Across the Spider-Verse”, “Shazam! Fury of the Gods”, and whatever cinematic superhero stories came before that have all had their day in the sun with my kid. It’s the reason why we have not one but two Dwyane Johnson “Black Adam” action figures.

His 8-year-old brain is dazzled by the bright lights and big sounds, instantly installing that movie alongside such superhero staples as “The Dark Knight”, “Avengers” and “Spider-Man 2”. Well, until the next round of comic book flicks comes out this winter.

NFL odds are the exact same thing. 

Our 8-year-old betting brains – starved of football sustenance since the Super Bowl – overreact to what we just witnessed and start making wild assumptions about the quality of teams, based solely on a single Sunday result. 

That’s why I love betting NFL Week 2 odds so much. There are windows of wagering value opened by the markets’ overreaction and recency bias, some as wide as an IMAX movie screen. You just have to be careful not to get suckered in by a flashy sliver of the 2023 NFL season that was Week 1.

Oh, look the new “Aquaman 2” trailer just dropped. Ooooo. That looks good. You better buy advanced tickets now.

Last week: 2-1 ATS

Season: 2-1 ATS

NFL Week 2 picks and predictions

• Steelers +2.5
• Bears +3
• Falcons +2

Picks made on September 13, 2023. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) pick

This Monday Night Football clash has two AFC North teams on the opposite end of the “overreaction” scale.

The Cleveland Browns shut down the Cincinnati Bengals to a mere field goal and 142 total yards of offense in the opener, winning 24-3 as 1-point home underdogs. The Pittsburgh Steelers, on the other hand, took one of the biggest ass-kickings on the opening slate. Pittsburgh was embarrassed 30-7 by the San Francisco 49ers as 2.5-point home pups.

Before Week 1, the look-ahead line for this Week 2 primetime game was as big as Steelers -2.5. After those above results, this spread has been flipped upside down to Browns -2.5. That’s a 5-point swing after a single Sunday.

Pittsburgh is a prideful team and head coach Mike Tomlin will be damned if the Steelers get embarrassed in front of the Black and Yellow faithful again. During his tenure in the Steel City, Pittsburgh has been a SuperBall for bettors, bouncing back off a loss to the tune of 50-39-1 ATS (56%) since 2007.

But it’s going to take more than sexy NFL trends to get the Steelers inside the field goal in Week 2. Especially with the roster missing some pieces on both sides of the ball.

The MNF date helps with an extra day to recover and honestly, as long as T.J. Watt is standing, Pittsburgh has a shot. In 10 career games against Cleveland, Watt has 15 sacks, 55 tackles (17 for a loss), one interception and a fumble recovery.

The one thing Cincinnati actually did right in its Week 1 bellyflop against the Browns was pressure the passer. Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson was sacked twice and felt the heat on almost 26% of dropbacks. While the soggy weather played a role, he completed only 16 of 29 throws with just 69% of those passes on target which led to the Browns finishing 4 for 14 on third downs.

Throw in that Tomlin has been the boogeyman for this Browns franchise - 16-0 SU and 10-5-1 ATS hosting Cleveland – and I’m exploiting the overreaction in the AFC North.

PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (-110 at bet365)

Chicago Bears (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick

In other Week 2 overreactions, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers go from +2.5 Week 2 dogs in the look-ahead markets this summer to -3 after stealing a win at Minnesota in the opener.

Yes, Chicago looked really bad in a Week 1 wash against Green Bay, but this spread should be more in the pick’em range or even Bears as slight road chalk.

Tampa Bay made the most of three turnovers from Kirk Cousins in a 20-17 stunner, and finished “upside down” in yardage, getting outgained by almost 130 yards on the day. The Bucs defense caused a lot of chaos with Todd Bowles dialing up the blitz on almost 45% of Cousins’ dropbacks, taking advantage of a plodding passer who runs like his pockets are full of rocks.

That’s not who Tampa takes on in Week 2.

Justin Fields is among the most dangerous QBs in the league when pressure mounts. While his passing numbers versus the blitz aren’t stellar, his ability to break off big gains on the ground is almost unmatched. And he’s an insane passer on the run, making some eye-popping plays while on the move.

Fields made ultra-aggressive defenses pay for bringing extra bodies last year, torching the likes of Miami and Detroit for 178 and 132 rushing yards respectively in 2022. His PFF grades versus the blitz show an expected decline in passer metrics but his rushing numbers in those spots are almost off the chart.

I’d much rather have my money riding on Fields’ fleet feet than the other QB option in this game: Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield passed for two touchdowns and had some big runs in the fourth quarter, but otherwise had a ho-hum day in his Buccaneers debut. He finished 21 for 34 for just 174 yards – an average of just 5.1 yards per attempt. The Tampa rushing game was even worse, picking up a piddly 2.2 yards per carry.

On the day, the Bucs offense averaged just 3.6 yards per play and totaled only 16 first downs, with a 7-for-18 success rate on third/fourth down conversions. The other teams that put up numbers like this last Sunday suffered one-sided losses, not upset wins.

All this happened despite Minnesota allegedly tipping its pitches on defense. According to RB Rachaad White, Mayfield apparently figured out the Vikings’ defensive signals early on. That could explain why Baker had the fifth-highest second-half QB in EPA+CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expectation) rating in Week 1.

Chicago’s defense won’t be as forthcoming with those tells in Week 2.

I was able to bet this one Bears +3.5 (-125) earlier in the week but the market is coming back down as everyone remembers just how shit the Bucs are. It’s as low as Tampa Bay -2.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.

PICK: Chicago Bears +3 (-115 at DraftKings)

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (+2) pick

The Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons were the sharp darlings of the NFL offseason, with wiseguys grabbing the Over on their win totals as well as milking all the value they could from division futures and playoff props.

Both teams came up big for those smart bettors in Week 1, with Green Bay blasting the Bears and Atlanta pulling away for a 24-10 win against Carolina. Now those betting loyalties are put to the test in Week 2.

Green Bay was a 2.5-point road underdog in the look-ahead markets this summer, with questions around QB1 Jordan Love. Well, Love answered those queries with a solid Week 1 showing in Chicago.

But now the Cheeseheads stay on the road for the second straight week and not only is Love’s top target WR Christian Watson likely to sit out again but RB Aaron Jones – the real star of Week 1 – could be sidelined with a hamstring pull.

Yet, despite those injuries, and Atlanta winning an ugly Week 1 opener with the Panthers, the market has moved the Packers to road favorites. The official Week 2 opener was a pick’em but early action drove this spread as high as Green Bay -2.5 before buyback showed up on Atlanta.

As of Wednesday afternoon, this line is down as low as Packers +1 and I could see it closing with the Falcons as favorites by Sunday, given the injuries to the Green Bay offense.

The Falcons weren’t outstanding in Week 1’s win, by any means. Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder threw the ball only 17 times and connected on 15 of those passes for just 115 yards, leaving anyone with Drake London or Kyle Pitts on their fantasy teams pretty upset.

Anyone with RB's Tyler Allgeier or Bijan Robinson rostered had to feel pretty good, however. Those two combined for 131 yards rushing, 46 yards receiving, and three touchdowns. That ground game goes after a Green Bay defense that was solid against the run in Week 1 after allowing the second-highest EPA per handoff in the NFL last year.

If the Falcons can impose their will with the run game and dominate the ball, it will help this new-look defense under coordinator Ryan Nielsen greatly. Atlanta’s stop unit looked good in the opener but did so against a rookie QB and a talent-less Panthers roster.

The Falcons still finished seventh in EPA allowed in Week 1, produced good pressure (33.3%) despite blitzing at the sixth lowest rate (19%), and created three takeaways.

If Atlanta can continue to close in on QBs by just rushing four, that allows the rest of the group to drop into coverage and has Love throwing into a secondary that could be the most underrated unit in football.

As one Green Bay coach told Packers insider Aaron Nagler, “This defense is crazy”.

PICK: Atlanta Falcons +2 (-110 at Sports Interaction)

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