NFL betting takes its cues from “The Lion King” with a circular lifecycle that ends just as it began.
Much like sleuthing for plans and motivation when placing preseason wagers, our NFL Week 18 picks are powered more by immediate information than matchups.
Will a playoff-bound team rest its starters? Does a non-qualifier care enough? Is a coach fighting for his job?
All will be revealed between now and kickoff, prompting a race to the window (or sportsbook app) before bookies adjust the odds to that intel. It makes Week 18 the craziest and most engulfing slate of the season.
I get a head start on that foot race with the bookies, taking the points with my best underdog NFL picks and predictions for Week 18.
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 30-19-2 ATS (+7.82 units)
NFL Week 18 predictions and picks
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49ers +1.5
Titans +13
Giants +5.5
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+1.5)
Best bet: 49ers +1.5
(-110 at DraftKings)
Is it just me or did the San Francisco 49ers ninja their way into a potential No. 1 seed in the NFC?
San Francisco has quietly lurked in the shadows while avoiding the same hoopla as its NFC contemporaries, drawing far less fuss than the likes of Philadelphia, Chicago, the L.A. Rams, and Seattle — its foe in this Saturday finale for all the marbles.
The Niners have won six straight games, prompted by the play of quarterback Brock Purdy. He’s back to being one of the most efficient arms in the NFL, ranking Top 2 in many advanced passer metrics since returning to the fray in Week 11.
Purdy is playing at an extremely high level the last three games, hovering around 300 passing yards in each outing, completing 72% of attempts, and tallying 11 passing touchdowns to two interceptions. He’s also rushed for 83 yards and two TDs in those showings.
Granted, those stats do come against some less-than-stingy defenses, but I feel much more confident in Purdy’s passing than I do with Sam Darnold right now. The Seahawks QB has shown flashes of why he’s far from elite in recent weeks, especially when it comes to ill-advised throws (four INTs the last four games).
In that same six-game span, Darnold has gone from the No. 1 QB in those passing analytics in the first 10 weeks to a bottom-third quarterback who ranks among the likes of Jacoby Brissett and Cam Ward.
In a game with a spread this tight — which opened San Francisco -1.5 and jumped the fence to Seattle -1.5 — I’m siding with the quarterback less likely to shit the bed.
Tennessee Titans (+13) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Best bet: Titans +13
(-110 at BetMGM)
The Jaguars need a win in Week 18 to secure the AFC South and likely the No. 3 seed in the AFC pecking order — barring a Broncos or Patriots loss.
Jacksonville will be scoreboard-watching in the late afternoon window. With Denver and New England set as sizable favorites, the Jags will want to build an early lead that allows them to pull the starters in the second half and protect them for the postseason.
With this spread swinging from Tennessee Titans +10.5 to +13, the opportunity for a backdoor cover grows wider.
Tennessee has been one of the best bets in football down the stretch, going 5-3 ATS in the past eight outings. The Titans have been particularly feisty over the last four contests, going 2-2 SU and ATS, with those two losses coming by one score.
What’s more, interim head coach Mike McCoy is trying to boost his resume ahead of the 2026 hiring session and would love nothing more than to stick it to his former employer in Week 18.
“If we go in there and beat them, and all of a sudden somebody else — Houston — ends up winning, they win the division,” McCoy told the media on Monday morning. “Things like that. It's an opportunity to go out there and do something like that against a division opponent."
Do I think the Titans can stun the Jaguars? No. Do I believe this pile of points can keep Tennessee within margin? Yes. Yes, I do.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+5.5)
Best bet: Giants +5.5
(-110 at bet365)
It’s safe to say the New York Giants aren’t too concerned about securing the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. New York could have turned on the tank in Week 17 but instead stomped Las Vegas by 24 points.
That win snapped a nine-game losing skid for the G-Men and gives them momentum heading into a Week 18 home finale. Interim head coach Mike Kafka told the media it’s business as usual for Sunday, with all available players active.
This spread sits a little higher than it should in my opinion, mainly because Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott told reporters he wanted to suit up in Week 18 — despite the Cowboys having nothing to gain.
Prescott’s plans could vary from what the front office wants, especially considering the gruesome history of this MetLife Stadium turf. Dallas could already be without RB Javonte Williams (shoulder) and TE Jake Ferguson (calf), who left last Thursday’s game with injuries. That’s not only two top weapons but big parts of the Cowboys’ pass protection.
Prescott took a pounding in the Xmas Day win over Washington, absorbing six sacks and 11 QB hits. He now faces a Giants pass rush that scored four sacks in Week 17 and injured Raiders QB Geno Smith (ankle) in the process. New York has 13 total sacks in its last four games.
If Dak is active, I don’t think it will be for more than a half of football. And those 30 minutes will be played in chilly conditions, with the extended forecast showing “feels like” temperatures in the mid-20s. Prescott’s performances take a nosedive outdoors, and more so in cold weather.
My NFL Underdogs column is 30-19-2 this season for +7.82 units.
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