Patriots vs Steelers TNF Prop Bets: Both Clubs Have Seen Better Days

Prop bet #1: TEASER

Mitchell Trubisky has obviously failed compared to the second overall draft capital that was used on him originally back in 2017, but he has fared respectably well as a backup - especially for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

He's not a world-beater by any means, but one thing he does well is take care of the football when he is a starter. The story is admittedly entirely different when he is called upon suddenly as, for example, he threw two INTs against the Jaguars earlier this year and another three interceptions last year in a game against the Ravens - both in games where Pickett exited with an injury.

But in his last five spot starts, he has thrown just two interceptions and has posted just a 1.4% interception rate across those games. For reference, that would be the fourth-best mark this year among passers with 300+ passing attempts.

And to make matters better, the New England Patriots have managed to just generate six interceptions on the season - a mark good for second-worst on the season.

Mitch Trubisky prop: Under 0.5 interceptions (+112 at Caesars)

Prop bet #2: TEASER

Jaylen Warren has been one of the league's most explosive backs this season, sitting atop or near the top of nearly every category in that regard whether it's broken tackle rate, missed tackle rate, runs of 10+ yards - you name it.

With lead back Najee Harris popping up on the injury report on Wednesday during a short week for a game in which the Steelers are favored by six points, the door is wide open for a career-best type performance for the second-year running back.

This is a perfect buy-low opportunity on Warren, who has seen his rushing yard total increase in each of the last four weeks but has fallen short in the last two. As a result, his rushing yardage prop is at just 42.5 this week compared to the 60.5 it closed at last week.

Jaylen Warren prop: Over 42.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: TEASER

There seems to be a situation brewing in Pittsburgh with Diontae Johnson, who is apparently displeased with the team and/or his role in the offense. Last week he celebrated a late garbage-time touchdown while the Steelers were still down 14 late in the fourth quarter.

In the week prior to that, Johnson came under fire after lacking even a semblance of effort while a ball was live just a foot away from him following a fumble.

Johnson has seen his production dip heavily in the last four weeks, racking up just 11 receptions across that time compared to the 20 receptions he had in the three games prior as he returned from injury.

More importantly, Tomlin is possibly getting fed up and is open to looking elsewhere. Johnson floated near a 90% snap share for a while but in the last two weeks, he has seen his snap share dip to 73% and 72%.

With less opportunity comes less production, and everything is pointing downward for Diontae Jonnson.

Diontae Johnson prop: Under 4.5 receptions (-137 at Caesars)