Sunday Night Football in Week 16 is a massive piece of the AFC playoff puzzle, with the New England Patriots visiting the Baltimore Ravens.
New England’s wheels are wobbling after blowing a 21-0 lead in a home loss to the Bills on Sunday. Baltimore, on the other hand, kept its postseason pace with a shutout of the rival Bengals.
I break down the opening SNF odds as well as line moves and give my early Patriots vs. Ravens predictions and NFL picks for December 21.
Patriots vs Ravens predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early SNF spread pick: Patriots +2.5
Bookies opened with the Baltimore Ravens as cheap 2.5-point home favorites on Sunday night, but the vig on that spread jumped from -105 to -115, and we could see a line move to the key number of a field goal later in the week.
If you like the New England Patriots in Week 15, make sure you wait to see if +3 rolls around.
The market move away from New England is fueled by doubt after watching the Pats barf up a big lead to the Bills. That collapse puts the validity of New England in question, as this team has benefitted from one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.
While the loss to Buffalo can buckle the knees, the Patriots still put up plenty of points in Week 15 and face a Ravens defense that’s been spotty all season. A shutout win over a bad Bengals team doesn’t convince me this stop unit has turned a page by any means.
And if we run down the Ravens’ recent foes, we see some soft defenses, awful offenses, and bad QB quality.
New England is a major step up in competition for Baltimore when we look at who it has played the past month. If the field goal comes around on New England, I’ll be looking long and hard at the Patriots on Sunday Night Football.
Early SNF total pick: Under 47.5
This is a tough total to handicap.
Books opened this number between 48.5 and 47.5, with the Over/Under bouncing around in the opening 12 hours of action. That said, the number sits between the key stops of 47 and 50, so there's wiggle room.
This Ravens defense is improved, which isn’t too hard considering how bad the stop unit was to start the season. Baltimore hasn’t battled many offensive powers like the Patriots, but still ranks Top 10 in EPA allowed per play and success rate allowed since Week 8.
New England’s defense didn’t look good in the second half against Buffalo, but this defense remains sound against the run and also sits Top 10 in those advanced metrics. We’ve seen Baltimore top out at 23 and 24 points against quality defenses like Pittsburgh and Cleveland in the second half of the schedule.
If Over money comes in, bookmakers will move fast and could pump this total to 48.5 or 49 points. There would be better Under value later in the week.
Patriots vs Ravens odds
- Patriots vs. Ravens spread: Ravens -2.5
- Patriots vs. Ravens moneyline: Patriots +120, Ravens -145
- Patriots vs. Ravens Over/Under: 47.5
How to watch Patriots vs Ravens
- Patriots vs. Ravens matchup
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025, 8:20 p.m. ET
- City: Baltimore, MD
- Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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