One of the marquee matchups of Week 10 features the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers hitting Raymond James Field on Sunday, November 9.
My Patriots vs. Buccaneers predictions and NFL picks expect Tampa Bay and quarterback Baker Mayfield to take care of New England on Sunday.
Our best Patriots vs Buccaneers SGP for Week 10
I like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this spot at home and coming off their Week 9 bye.
Tampa has multiple statement wins, and I’m expecting the extra week of rest and preparation to make the difference in this game.
Look for the Tampa Bay defense to show up and play New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye tough. He’s been sacked six times in consecutive games, and the Pats offensive line ranks 31st in pass block win rate for the year.
Additionally, while the New England defense is flashing in most advanced metrics, the Patriots also rank 25th in defensive DVOA, which accounts for strength of schedule.
New England ranking a lowly 28th in pressure percentage and 23rd in pass rush win rate also has my attention because there is an uptick in Tampa QB Baker Mayfield’s numbers when he’s throwing from a clean pocket.
With that in mind, Mayfield has aired it out for an average of 259.3 passing yards per home game, and I’m anticipating him having the protection to pick apart the Pats.
And, the Pats have allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt to opposing QBs while ranking 28th in pass defense DVOA, too.
Turning to the total, New England has gone Over the number in 13 of its past 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI) and sends out a solid offense. The Pats rank 10th in offensive DVOA, seventh in EPA per play, and seventh in points per game (26.3), after all.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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