A trip to Super Bowl 60 in Santa Clara, California, will be on the line this Sunday when the New England Patriots face the Denver Broncos in the Mile High City.
The Pats are -4.5 betting favorites at most of the best NFL betting sites.
Below, we will look at NFL player props for all of the top offensive players for the Patriots and Broncos.
Patriots vs Broncos computer picks
 Patriots |
 Broncos |
|---|---|
| Maye Under 223.5 passing yards (-111) | Stidham Over 198.5 passing yards (-110) |
| Stevenson O/U 49.5 rushing yards (PUSH) | Harvey Under 40.5 rushing yards (-110) |
| Diggs Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110) | Sutton Over 49.5 receiving yards (-114) |
| Henry Over 41.5 receiving yards (-110) | Engram Over 19.5 receiving yards (-110) |
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Patriots computer picks
Drake Maye Under 223.5 passing yards (-111)
Projection: 212.5 yards
Much has been made of the Patriots’ supposedly “easy” path to this point, but don’t tell that to Drake Maye. He’s faced two of the top-five NFL defenses in the past two weeks and now prepares to take on another Sunday.
Maye has been solid in both playoff games so far. In the Wild Card round against the Chargers, he completed 17-of-29 passes for 268 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception, finishing with an 86.6 passer rating.
This past Sunday against Houston, Maye went 16-of-27 for 179 yards, tossing three TDs and one interception for a 100.7 passer rating.
I expect Denver to focus on shutting down the Patriots’ running game and force Maye to throw 35+ times. While he may toss a pick or two, he should still rack up significant yardage.
Take Maye to eclipse this number, even if the computer model disagrees.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over/Under 49.5 rushing yards (PUSH)
Projection: 49.5 yards
As mentioned, I expect the Broncos to focus on stopping the New England running game first and foremost. Stevenson has 26 carries for 123 rushing yards in the postseason so far, but I think the Patriots will give fellow RB TreVeyon Henderson a few more opportunities in this game.
Henderson is New England’s home-run threat, and we’ve seen running backs successfully break long runs against Denver over the past two months. In Week 16, Travis Etienne had a 24-yard burst, and in Week 15, Josh Jacobs ripped off a 40-yard run.
Josh McDaniels will likely look to spring Henderson loose, which should limit Stevenson’s carries and yardage.
The computer has Stevenson’s rushing total at a push of 49.5 yards, but I like the Under.
Stefon Diggs Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 58.5 yards
Denver’s Pat Surtain is arguably one of the league’s best cornerbacks, but he mainly covers outside receivers. Stefon Diggs, who primarily lines up in the slot, should find more room to operate, as slot receivers have had success against the Broncos’ defense.
For example, Jacksonville’s Parker Washington totaled 145 receiving yards against Denver in Week 16. Diggs should be able to reach at least 48 yards.
I prefer the Diggs Over, and the computer agrees.
Hunter Henry Over 41.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 41.6 yards
Since Thanksgiving, several tight ends have put up solid numbers against Denver’s defense.
Green Bay’s Luke Musgrave had four catches for 52 yards, Las Vegas’ Brock Bowers had four catches for 46 yards, and Washington’s Zach Ertz hauled in 10 catches for 106 yards against the Broncos.
I expect Maye to look over the middle often, targeting Diggs and Henry. I like the Over here, and so does the computer.
Broncos computer picks
Jarrett Stidham Over 198.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 213.9 yards
C.J. Stroud threw the ball a whopping 47 times last week against the underrated Patriots defense but managed just 212 passing yards.
Justin Herbert fared even worse the week before, completing 31 passes for only 159 yards against New England.
The Patriots will let Stidham throw, but reaching 199 yards is a tough ask.
I like the Under for Stidham here, while the computer favors the Over.
RJ Harvey Under 40.5 rushing yards (-110)
Projection: 39.5 yards
Before defensive tackle Milton Williams went down with an injury midway through the season, the Patriots had arguably the league’s best run defense.
Williams is now back, and early results show New England’s run defense has returned to elite form. In the Wild Card round, the Patriots held Kimani Vidal to 31 yards on 11 carries and Omarion Hampton to -1 yard on a single attempt.
This past round against Houston, Woody Marks ran 14 times for just 17 yards, while Nick Chubb gained 14 yards on four carries.
New England will challenge Stidham to throw while keying on the Broncos’ run game. We should also see the returning J.K. Dobbins take a few carries away from Harvey.
Both the computer model and I are aligned here — I like the Harvey Under.
Courtland Sutton Over 49.5 receiving yards (-114)
Projection: 58.2 yards
New England cornerback Christian Gonzalez is one of the NFL’s top shutdown corners. He’ll spend plenty of time on Sutton in this game and should limit his ceiling.
That said, Sutton has a way of putting up solid numbers in big games. Here’s a look at his production during Denver’s key December stretch.
- Week 15 Packers at Broncos: 10 targets, 7 catches for 113 yards
- Week 16 Jaguars at Broncos: 12 targets, 6 catches for 86 yards
- Week 17 Broncos at Chiefs: 10 catches for 40 yards
I like Sutton to put up decent yardage against the Pats. He should be able to creep past this number, and my AI pal agrees.
Evan Engram Over 19.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 23.3 yards
This is a nice low number for Engram, and one I think he can reach.
New England rarely gets embarrassed by tight ends, but they are vulnerable to one or two big plays per game from opposing TEs.
Here’s a look at tight end production against the Patriots’ defense since their bye week.
- Dalton Shultz: 2 for 47 with a long of 42
- Oronde Gadsden: 3 for 30 with a long of 10
- Greg Dulcich: 3 for 31 with a long of 20
- Stone Smartt: 2 for 18 with a long of 12
- Mark Andrews: 2 for 21 with a long of 18
- Dawson Knox: 3 for 37 with a long of 19
The computer and I finish up in agreement, both liking the Engram Over.
