The Kansas City Chiefs are in primetime again this week as they host the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football, after a 31-28 loss in Jacksonville that dropped them to 2-3 on the season.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have a tall task ahead of them in the form of the Detroit Lions on Sunday night.
My best Patrick Mahomes odds and NFL picks for October 12 expect the quarterback to use his legs against the Lions on Sunday Night Football.
Patrick Mahomes prop pick
Patrick Mahomes best bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 26.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Patrick Mahomes has turned back the clock a bit this season in terms of running the football.
The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback only ran the ball 58 times for 307 yards last season, and he’s nearly halfway to that attempts total with 28 through five games, and he’s already run for 190 yards. His current 5.6 attempts per game are two higher than last year’s 3.6, and would be a career high if he keeps this up.
Mahomes has been fairly consistent in taking off to run this season, with at least four attempts in each game. However, he was held to single-digit yards against the Ravens and Giants, while he had 57, 66, and 60 yards (with a touchdown in each game) against the Chargers, Eagles, and Jaguars.
The Detroit Lions have allowed three of the five quarterbacks (Caleb Williams, Lamar Jackson, and Jake Browning) they’ve faced to rush for at least 27 yards this season.
Given how Mahomes has looked so far with his boom-or-bust rushing yards total, an alternate total ladder could be in play here. He is +112 for 30 yards, +225 for 40, and +400 for 50.
Patrick Mahomes same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes Over 26.5 rushing yards
Patrick Mahomes anytime touchdown
Over 52.5
When Mahomes goes over his rushing yards prop, he scores a touchdown. The Lions have yet to allow a quarterback to score through five weeks, but we’re getting some good odds on Mahomes to find paydirt in primetime.
This game should easily go over the total. The Lions have scored 34 or more points in four straight games, and the Chiefs have a total of 65 points in their last two contests.
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