Packers vs Vikings SNF Prop Bets: Reed Held in Check

Prop bet #1: Reed between the lines

Jayden Reed odds are our first target, as he’s quietly been one of the best rookie wide receivers not named Puka Nacua. The second-round pick out of Michigan ranks eighth among rookie receivers in total yards and third in total touchdowns, and has seen his involvement grow in recent weeks.

After logging just one 5+ reception game in his first 13 games, Reed has now tallied two of them in consecutive weeks. Granted, Reed has tallied just 79 yards across the 14 catches he has had in the last two weeks, good for only a 5.6-yard-per-reception rate, but that may play to his advantage on Sunday.

Brian Flores utilizes a LOT of blitzes, which often forces quarterbacks to get rid of the ball quickly. That means less attention to outside receivers, which require more time to develop their routes, and more short-to-intermediate layup-type throws to slot receivers.

To illustrate this: The Vikings’ 14.2 receptions allowed per game to opposing wide receivers is the ninth-most this year. However, of the teams that rank worse than them, just one team allows fewer yards per game to the position.

Jayden Reed prop: Under 53.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Kraft cheesed

Another byproduct of the Vikings' defensive philosophies is that tight ends typically see much less production when playing against Minnesota. The extra emphasis on blitzes forces teams to bring tight ends in more to block, and as a result, they see less involvement through the air.

That brings us to Tucker Kraft odds. The third-round rookie tight end the Packers selected alongside second-round rookie Luke Musgrave, may be in for a quiet game as a result. Kraft has shined in Musgrave's absence as of late, tallying 4+ receptions and 50+ yards in three straight weeks after failing to log either benchmark once this season.

But again, the Vikings tend to keep opposing tight ends at bay by keeping them in-line to block. Their 44.9 receiving yards allowed per game to the position is the sixth-fewest this year, and their 6.2 targets allowed are the seventh-fewest.

Tucker Kraft prop: Under 39.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Ty-ing one on

The second-year fifth-round running back out of North Carolina has pleasantly surprised many in recent weeks as he has stepped in for the injured Alexander Mattison and the previously injured Cam Akers.

Chandler has logged a 56%, 81%, and 65% snap share in the last three weeks and has logged 10+ carries in four of his last six games. Two weeks ago, he gashed the Bengals for 157 total yards on 23 carries and three receptions.

Joe Barry's defense has notably been miserable against the run during his tenure, and this year has been no different. The Packers' 112.6 rushing yards allowed per game to opposing running backs is the fourth-most this year.

Mattison returned from his injury last week after a week of spotty practice, and only tallied two rushes for -1 yards as a result. Ty Chandler odds are our last target, as he should remain the lead back in Week 17, and should produce in a plus matchup.

Ty Chandler prop: Over 61.5 rushing yards (-105 at DraftKings)