Packers vs Raiders MNF Prop Bets: Love Gets Shut Down in Las Vegas

Jordan Love has been throwing a lot to start the season but the Raiders defense may be equipped to stop him when the Packers head to Sin City for Monday Night Football. We break down the matchup in our MNF prop picks below.

Oct 9, 2023 • 17:44 ET • 4 min read
Jordan Love Green Bay Packers NFL
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We've got an interesting non-conference matchup for Monday Night Football odds when the Green Bay Packers visit Sin City to battle the Las Vegas Raiders. 

NFL odds aren’t expecting much scoring tonight, but the NFL prop markets have plenty of value to be had for this Week 5 odds finale.

We've already broken down the matchup in our Packers vs. Raiders predictions and Jordan Love prop picks, but I'll give you my three favorite player props in my free NFL picks for Monday Night Football below. 

Packers vs Raiders MNF props

  • Love Under 235.5 passing yards
  • Reed Under 37.5 receiving yards
  • Jones Under 49.5 rushing yards

Picks made on October 8 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Packers vs Raiders MNF props

Prop bet #1: No love for Love

Jordan Love has eclipsed this prop passing mark in three of his four contests this season, but the Las Vegas Raiders will likely be his stiffest test.

The Raiders pass defense has been stout away from Vegas, and I expect the same type of defensive effort Monday night at home against Love and a Green Bay Packers offense averaging 225.5 passing yards per contest.

The Raiders passing defense held Russell Wilson to 177 passing yards in Denver, Josh Allen to 273 in Buffalo, and just 167 to Justin Herbert in SoCal.

Las Vegas allows a robust 202 passing yards per game, with 13 passes defended but just one interception. They average nearly two sacks per game and face a Packers offensive line that hasn't protected its QB very well and allowed five sacks last week at home to Detroit.

Love has been steady yet unspectacular, averaging 6.8 yards per completion on a 56% completion rate. He’ll throw anywhere from 27-40 passes on Monday, and if he completes 50% of them on a 6.8 average, he won’t get anywhere near 235.5 yards.

Finally, look for the Raiders defensive line to harass Love throughout this contest. Love has decent wideouts but not anywhere near the talent Las Vegas has already faced this season, and I believe they won’t have much love for the Green Bay signal-caller Monday night. 

Jordan Love prop: Under 235.5 passing yards (-110 at PointsBet)

Prop bet #2: Reed thin

Jayden Reed has gone Over the bookmakers' total in three of his first four games, but he’s up against a strong Raiders secondary, and I don’t believe he gets Over this number in Week 5.

Reed averages 16.9 yards per reception and has hauled in a dozen of his 24 targets. He fumbled for the first time this season last week against Detroit and saw his fewest targets of the season (five). 

Wideout Romeo Dobbs has 25 targets over the past two weeks and is starting to get comfortable with Love, and wideout Christian Watson returning could vulture some targets away for Reed.

Vegas allows 6.8 passing yards per attempt this season and 8.1 yards per catch at home, but that home game was against Pittsburgh which included a 74-yard TD reception by Steelers wideout Calvin Austin III. Outside of that, the Raiders defense was solid, and they meet a similar offense in the Packers on Monday.

Between the stout Raiders secondary and the return of Watson, I expect Reed to see fewer targets than his 6.25 per game. He’ll likely get between three and five; if he catches two at his average, his receiving prop will fall Under the oddsmakers' number.

Jayden Reed prop: Under 37.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Jones no more

Aaron Jones has hamstring issues — with just 14 rushing attempts this season — and is listed as questionable.

Last week, Jones scampered for 18 yards on five carries and rushed for 41 yards on nine attempts in Week 1 against Chicago. He missed his Week 2 and Week 3 matchups and hasn’t looked like the 1,000-yard rusher from a season ago.

Las Vegas allows 4.2 rushing yards per attempt, and while they haven’t faced a running back that brings a pedigree like Jones does to the table, the interior defense seems to be getting healthier and was effective last week against Denver, holding Broncos RB Javonte Williams to 52 yards on 13 attempts.

Green Bay has used Jones sparingly this season — he’s been dealing with the hamstring issue since the start of the season and missed a couple of games because of it. He left the game against Detroit with the same hamstring issue, and if he dresses at all, we'll see just 5-10 rushing attempts. 50 yards seems like a stretch for Jones on Monday and why I’m betting Under 49.5 rushing yards.

Aaron Jones prop: Under 49.5. rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

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