NFL Draft odds 2021: Trevor Lawrence the heavy favorite

Jun 16, 2020 |
NFL Draft odds 2021: Trevor Lawrence the heavy favorite
Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is the heavy chalk favorite to be picked first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft next April.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is the heavy chalk favorite to be picked first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft next April.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The 2021 NFL Draft won't take place until April 29 of next year but NFL draft props are already out for the biggest question on everyone's mind: Who will be picked first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft?

Get your mock draft started early with a look at the 2021 NFL Draft odds to go first overall.

Who is the favorite to be the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft? 

Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is currently the betting favorite at whopping -305. Lawrence was a five-star recruit out of high school and has lived up to expectations through his first two years at Clemson, completing 66.4 percent of his passes for 6,711 yards and 66 touchdowns against just 12 interceptions.

However, from Marcus Mariota to Sam Darnold, Drew Lock and Tua Tagavoilia, there's a long list of recent quarterbacks that were preseason favorites to go first overall that failed to cash out for bettors. With so much that could change between now and next April, betting on Lawrence might not be anywhere as much of a sure thing as the odds board seems to suggest.

Next on the 2021 NFL Draft odds is Ohio State's Justin Fields, another five-star recruit QB who is coming off a dominant sophomore season. Just behind Fields is Oregon left tackle Penei Sewell, who won the Outland Trophy as college football's top lineman last season despite being just 19 years old. After Sewell, there's a big drop off to the rest of the field. 

Odds to go first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft

Player Position Odds to go first overall in 2021 NFL Draft
Trevor Lawrence QB -305
Justin Fields QB +350
Penei Sewell OT +400
Trey Lance QB +1,000
D'Eriq King QB +2,200
Micah Parsons LB +2,500
Alex Leatherwood OT +3,300
Jamie Newman QB +3,300
Gregory Rousseau DE +3,300
Ja'Marr Chase WR +5,000
DeVonta Smith WR +5,000
Jaylen Waddle WR +5,000
Travis Etienne RB +5,000
Patrick Surtain III CB +5,000
Shaun Wade CB +5,000
Chuba Hubbard RB +6,600
Sam Cosmi OL +6,600
Kellen Mond QB +8,000
Najee Harris RB +8,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings


NFL Draft Betting trends

• Each of the last three first-overall selections have been quarterback transfers that won the Heisman Trophy. If 2020 transfers Jamie Newman, D'Eriq King and Jake Bentley are in the Heisman discussion this may be a trend to keep a close eye on.

• Quarterback is the most important position on the football field and while most first overall selections have played QB, quarterback hunters have been in high demand as well. Three of the last 15 No. 1 overall picks were pass rushers. The top pass-rush specialist on the odds board is Miami's Gregory Rousseau, who racked up 15.5 sacks as a redshirt freshman in 2018.

• No running back has gone first overall since 1995, yet three running backs (Travis Etienne, Chuba Hubbard and Najee Harris) are currently in the top 18 on the odds board. 

• No linebacker has gone first overall since Aundray Bruce in 1988. The defensive player with the best odds of going first overall in 2020 is Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons

List of first overall NFL Draft picks

Year Player Position
2020 Joe Burrow QB
2019 Kyler Murray QB
2018 Baker Mayfield QB
2017 Myles Garrett DE
2016 Jared Goff QB
2015 Jameis Winston QB
2014 Jadeveon Clowney DE
2013 Eric Fisher OT
2012 Andrew Luck QB
2011 Cam Newton QB
2010 Sam Bradford QB
2009 Matthew Stafford QB
2008 Jake Long OT
2007 JaMarcus Russell QB
2006 Mario Williams DE

How to bet on the 2021 NFL Draft

Sportsbooks will post odds for the player to go first overall in the draft as soon the previous year's draft is over. Once the college football season begins in September, these odds could change weekly depending on how players are performing as well as the evaluations of trusted draftniks such as Mel Kiper Jr.

In addition, this NFL futures bet may also take into account the team needs of the worst team(s) in the NFL.

After the NCAA football season is over, NFL Draft odds will solidify after key events such as the underclassmen declaration deadline, the NFL Scouting Combine and pro days. In the weeks leading up to the draft, sportsbooks will offer more NFL Draft prop bets. 


Understanding NFL Draft odds

The odds to go first overall in the NFL Draft will typically look like this:

  • Tua Tagovailoa +250

This means that if you placed a $100 bet on Tua last April, you would have won $250 if the Alabama QB had gone first overall in 2020. When you get closer to the draft and there is a general consensus on who will go first overall, you might see a player with a minus sign (-) ahead of his odds, like this:

  • Joe Burrow -2,500

This means that a month before the 2020 NFL Draft, you had to bet $2,500 to win $100 on Joe Burrow being taken first overall.

Above we have posted the American odds for the 2021 NFL Draft. However, these are easy to convert to decimal odds or fractional odds with our odds converter tool.

Where can I bet on the 2021 NFL Draft?

Most online books and casinos offer bets on the NFL Draft. Betting on the first available pick is usually the first wager offered, with odds coming out as soon as the previous year's draft takes place. Closer to the draft, however, expect many more prop bets to come out as the draft board becomes more clear. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live. 

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