Not every player can get well and beyond their NFL odds prop total but for those who might be mispriced, have a better matchup than expected, or can just pile up stats in garbage time, betting milestones and alt-Overs can be profitable even with a low win percentage.
I’ll be using bet365 for most odds as they have become the best book for offering alt-Overs and have milestone markets for seemingly every prop. They also give you the green checkmark as soon as the number is hit and bettors are able to cash out immediately (if that option is still available to you), which also helps.
Week 3 milestone picks
- B.Hall 75-plus rushing yards
- D.Cook 50-plus rushing yards
- R.Rice 25-plus receiving yards
- G.Pickens 6-plus receptions
Picks made on September 23 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best Week 3 milestone bets
75-plus rushing yards
Last week, the Patriots gave up 121 rushing yards on 18 carries and two scores to Miami running back Raheem Moster who entered that game with a rushing total of 50.5 yards. This week the Pats will face a New York Jets team that didn’t get to run the ball last week and will want to lean on the ground game with Zach Wilson under center.
Last season, the Jets were missing Breece Hall in both matchups vs. New England, who has famously beaten Wilson in all four matchups, where the QB has thrown seven interceptions to two TDs and has been sacked 11 times. The path to a New York win is not with Wilson on Sunday and that means the modest rushing totals of Hall and Dalvin Cook are in play.
I mention both as Hall will not get a heavy workload and hasn’t touched the ball more than 11 times this season. He's also dealing with a knee injury but got in a full practice on Friday.
Hall is averaging a sexy 6.4 yards per carry over his first 94 totes and had two carries of 20-plus yards in the opener vs. Buffalo (who held Josh Jacobs to negative yards) en route to a 127-yard day on 10 carries. He’s No.1 in juke rate and second in breakaway run rate and has accomplished that in just 14 carries.
With a modest rushing total of 44.5, Hall’s 75-plus rushing yards milestone at +390 is in play for 0.75 units and his 100-plus at +1125 at 0.25 units is a play as well.
However, there is some risk with workload, and that’s where Cook comes in. Cook is the clear No.2 and currently has three more carries on the season than Hall. He isn’t nearly as explosive as his teammate but his role could very well be opportunistic for bettors with New York expected to run.
THE BLITZ loves Cook’s Over 27.5 rushing yards as the model is projecting 48.95 rushing yards for the backup. That's very close to his 50-yard rushing milestone that can be had at +425. This is a full-unit play for me and in total, this two-unit package bet could return a profit if either play hits.
This game could be wet with the weather hitting the East Coast, and that will only favor a higher run rate for the Jets who can’t trust Wilson vs. the Patriots. Double-digit winds should also keep this game on the ground.
Dalvin Cook prop: 50-plus rushing yards (+425 at bet365 for 1 unit)
25-plus receiving yards
Chiefs rookie receiver Rashee Rice saw just six routes last week but still turned that into two catches for 20 yards. That followed a Week 1 performance where he had two catches for 29 yards on five targets and a score. He isn’t seeing a lot of the field, but when he does run a route, he’s being targeted at a 39% rate. Those routes could increase Sunday vs. Chicago with Kadarious Toney questionable and Richie James out.
Toney tied the team-high for targets last week with five but had two DNPs at practice on Wednesday and Thursday and then was limited on Friday. If he can’t go or is limited, Rice should see more action. Both receivers play primarily out of the slot and although the game script is a little worrisome with KC being a big favorite and Chicago being a dumpster fire, they are still allowing 277 passing yards per game through two weeks to Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield. I feel much safer with low milestones in games with a projected positive game script.
Patrick Mahomes is targeting everyone, but with a receiving total of just 13.5 yards and a hopeful uptick in snaps/routes, Rice’s 25-plus receiving yards at +210 is worth a unit, especially with THE BLITZ projecting 28.48 yards. That’s the biggest difference in implied vs. projected receiving yards of the entire Week 3 slate.
Rashee Rice prop: 25-plus receiving yards (+210 at bet365 for 1 unit)
With Diontae Johnson on the IR, George Pickens went off on Monday night with 10 targets for 127 yards and a score. His catch rate wasn’t great with just four grabs, but the volume is there now as the clear No.1 and he has 40% of the team’s air yards through two weeks.
He also has two things going for him Sunday night which make for a great milestone play: A short total of 51.5 yards, a reception total of 3.5, and a cupcake matchup vs. the Raiders.
So far, Las Vegas ranks as arguably the worst defense sitting 31st in EPA/play and dead last in success rate. But what really stands out is the completion percentage it allows.
Through two games, Las Vegas is giving up catches at an 81.7% rate. That number is insane. They might not give up the home run, but they certainly can give up receptions which should make up for Pickens’ weaker catch rate.
Pickens is paying +290 for six grabs, +575 for seven grabs, and a juicy +1,125 for eight. It’s 0.75 units on the +290, 0.35 units on the +575, and 0.20 units on the +1,125. This is a great matchup to switch up the yards for receptions. The indoor setting is also a big factor here. The Steelers passing game projects very well from THE BLITZ Sunday night.
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