The Detroit Lions head to Southern California to face the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.
Headlined by Matthew Stafford, I've identified some nice value on the board with my three favorite Lions vs. Rams player props for December 14.
For more NFL picks, make sure to check out our full Lions vs. Rams predictions!
Lions vs Rams props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Matthew Stafford |
Over 281.5 passing yards | -110 |
| Tutu Atwell |
Anytime touchdown | +370 |
 David Montgomery |
Over 9.5 receiving yards | -114 |
Prop bet #1: Matthew Stafford Over 281.5 passing yards
It’s pretty difficult to look at this matchup and not come to the conclusion that involves Matthew Stafford having a big day. While this number may ultimately end up being the highest passing yardage number for Stafford all season, it’s deserved. The Detroit Lions' secondary has been reeling.
It’s taken a degree of attrition over the season, most recently with star safety Brian Branch hitting IR, and it’s really started to show. The Lions have allowed opponents to complete pass plays of 48, 38, and 37 yards over the last three weeks. During that same timeframe, they’ve ranked near the bottom of the NFL in EPA allowed per dropback. That feels like a death sentence against the Los Angeles Rams.
The eye test would show you just as much as the numbers: this is an extremely explosive passing attack. They rank in the top three of the NFL in virtually every air statistic and have improved as the season has gone on.
Aiding our cause is a reasonably stout Lions rushing defense that should force the Rams to throw even more than usual. I’d play this to 294.5.
Prop bet #2: Tutu Atwell anytime touchdown
This is the classic one-touchdown-on-one-play profile guy, and this matchup sets up well for it.
Tutu Atwell is back in the mix after returning from IR, which puts him in a position to immediately resume his role as the offense’s primary vertical stressor. Even in limited volume this year, his production has been big-play driven, which would seem like exactly what you want given this matchup, right?
This is mostly a piggyback off the same logic we had with Stafford’s passing yards. The Lions' secondary has given up a host of big plays throughout the season and, if anything, we’re inclined to believe that it gets worse before it improves.
With Puka Nacua and Davante Adams garnering so much attention, I’m inclined to take a shot here with one of the fastest players on the field at an attractive price.
Prop bet #3: David Montgomery Over 9.5 receiving yards
This number is too low, and the paths to getting there are plentiful. You’re asking for two short catches, or one checkdown plus a screen. I think you’ll see a good amount of those because the Rams’ pass rush can speed up the quarterback’s clock and force the ball out quickly.
When pressure is a real threat, the easiest answers are running back outlets. It also helps that the Rams' secondary grades out as Top 5 in pretty much anything over 20 yards.
Detroit’s offense also naturally creates these types of chances. Defenses sell out to stop the run and to prevent explosive plays, which leaves the underneath area open for quick outlets to the backs. David Montgomery doesn’t need to be the primary passing-down back to clear this number either; he just needs a couple of quarterback-friendly bailouts or a designed touch or two.
If the Lions are playing from ahead, play-action and quick throws to the back are easy ways to stay on schedule. If they’re chasing points, like I expect them to be, then checkdowns will occur even more frequently.
I’d play this to 12.5.
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