Five weeks into the 2026 NFL season, three teams are still searching for their first victory.
The Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans, and Los Angeles Chargers are all 0-5, leaving prediction market traders wondering which franchise will finally enter the win column.
In our NFL last team to win analysis, we break down the probability and upcoming schedule for all three teams and offer our NFL picks on which team will be the most unfortunate.
NFL last team to win odds
According to Kalshi's NFL last team to win market, the following three teams remain winless entering Week 6.
Probabilities courtesy of Kalshi as of Oct. 12, 2026, and subject to change. Displayed market estimates are not normalized to total 100%.
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Which NFL teams are still winless in 2026?
The Dolphins, Titans, and Chargers each enter Week 6 with an 0-5 record. However, their upcoming schedules present different opportunities to secure a first win.
Dolphins 50%
The Miami Dolphins enter Week 6 on a bye, still searching for their first win. The Dolphins return against the division-rival New York Jets before hosting the Patriots and Lions in consecutive home games.
Dolphins next five games
| Week | Date | Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Oct. 25 | at  Jets |
| 8 | Nov. 1 | vs.  Patriots |
| 9 | Nov. 8 | vs.  Lions |
| 10 | Nov. 15 | at  Colts |
| 11 | Nov. 22 | at  Bills |
Bye week: Week 6.
The Dolphins may enter Week 7 as the only team without a win simply because they didn't get a chance.
Their Week 6 bye has definitely played a factor in their 50% probability, although it may be higher if the Titans and Chargers weren't in for tough division matchups.
Miami arguably fields the worst roster in the league on paper. If the Fins can't get the job done on the road against the Jets, they could be heading into December winless.
Titans 29%
The Tennessee Titans have two more games before their Week 9 bye, starting with a road game against Indianapolis before hosting Cleveland in Nashville. The Titans then travel to Cincinnati, followed by Jacksonville and Dallas after their week off.
Tennessee Titans next five games
| Week | Date | Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Oct. 18 | at Colts |
| 7 | Oct. 25 | vs.  Browns |
| 8 | Nov. 1 | at  Bengals |
| 10 | Nov. 15 | vs.  Jaguars |
| 11 | Nov. 22 | at  Cowboys |
Bye week: Week 9.
The Titans, led by one of the worst head coach/quarterback duos in recent memory, will need to find a way to get the job done as 6.5-point underdogs against Indianapolis.
Outside of the Browns in Week 7, the next three matchups are against offenses that Tennessee has little to no chance of keeping up with. Titans fans are in for a long season.
Chargers 24%
The Los Angeles Chargers face a difficult trip to Kansas City in Week 6 before entering their bye week. The Chargers return against the cross-town Rams, followed by a home game against Houston and a Monday night visit to Baltimore.
Chargers next five games
| Week | Date | Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Oct. 18 | at  Chiefs |
| 8 | Nov. 1 | at  Rams |
| 9 | Nov. 8 | vs.  Texans |
| 10 | Nov. 16 | at  Ravens |
| 11 | Nov. 22 | vs. Jets |
Bye week: Week 7.
"One of these teams is not like the other,". The fact the Chargers enter Week 6 without a win is a colossal failure, and Justin Herbert may be one backbreaking interception away from calling it quits to ride off in the sunset with Madison Beer.
In all seriousness, Herbert, who was wrapped up in MVP talks entering the season, looks lost under the playbook of new OC Mike McDaniel.
Back-to-back road games against K.C. and the Rams could have this team at 0-7, and things don't get any easier against DeMeco Ryans' Texans — who seem to be better than their current 1-4 record suggests.
Which NFL team will be the last to win a game?
Dolphins 50%
If the Dolphins can't beat the Jets in Week 7, their next winnable game on paper comes in Week 12... against the Jets. The Titans could steal a win against the incompetent Browns at home in Week 7, while the Chargers are technically the best 0-5 team right now.
People will start losing their jobs if things don't shift in L.A., so I think they will play with more urgency. The Fins could go 0-17, and with them not playing in Week 6, this is the best trade to make in this market right now.
How to handicap NFL last team to win odds
Predicting which NFL team will be the last to record its first victory requires a different approach than simply identifying the league's worst roster. The upcoming schedule, bye weeks, and potential changes in team performance can all influence the outcome.
- Study the upcoming schedule: Identify potential breakthrough opportunities against struggling opponents, particularly favorable home matchups. A team with a difficult upcoming schedule could remain winless longer than a team with weaker overall talent.
- Account for bye weeks: Miami has its bye in Week 6, while Los Angeles is off in Week 7 and Tennessee in Week 9. Since Kalshi measures this market by the week of each team's first victory, the timing of those breaks matters.
- Monitor injuries and quarterback changes: An injury to a starting quarterback or another key contributor could significantly impact a team's chances of picking up its first win. Conversely, a returning starter or lineup change could provide an immediate boost.
- Compare market probabilities: Kalshi probabilities can move quickly following each round of NFL games. Compare the market's assessment with your own expectations before deciding whether a particular team offers value.
How to trade on Kalshi
Trading NFL futures on prediction markets like Kalshi works differently from traditional sportsbooks. Rather than placing a standard futures wager, traders buy and sell event contracts based on whether they believe a specific outcome will occur.
- Find the market: Navigate to Kalshi and locate the NFL last team to win a game market.
- Trade the probability: Buy "Yes" contracts if you believe a particular team has a greater chance of being among the last to record its first win than the market suggests. Buy "No" contracts if you believe that outcome is being overvalued.
- Follow each week's results: A first victory can dramatically change the remaining outcomes, while another loss or a bye week could shift market probabilities.
- Know your exit strategy: You don't necessarily need to hold your contracts until the market settles. Depending on available liquidity, you can sell your position before resolution. Trading involves risk, including the potential loss of your contract cost and fees.
❓NFL last team to win odds FAQs
How is the last NFL team to win determined?
Kalshi's market resolves based on which team goes the longest without winning a game during the 2026 NFL regular season. The outcome is determined by the NFL week of each team's first victory, not the specific date or time.
What happens if two teams get their first win in the same week?
If the last remaining winless teams earn their first victories during the same NFL week, they are considered tied. For example, a team winning on Thursday and another winning on Sunday of the same week would share the outcome.
Does an NFL tie count as a win on Kalshi?
No. A tied NFL game does not count as a victory in this market. A team that finishes a game tied remains winless until it records its first outright win.
What happens if an NFL team finishes the season winless?
A team that finishes the regular season without a victory ranks behind every team that wins at least once. If multiple teams finish winless, they are considered tied for last.
What happens to Kalshi payouts if multiple teams tie?
If multiple teams tie for last, Kalshi divides the payout among the tied outcomes. For example, if two teams tie, Yes contracts on each tied team pay $0.50, while No contracts pay $0.50. If three teams tie, Yes contracts pay $0.33 and No contracts pay $0.67. Payouts are rounded down to the nearest cent for Yes contracts.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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