The New York Giants stunned the Philadelphia Eagles at home just a couple of weeks ago, but now they’ll try to repeat history on the road in a hostile environment.
I'll break down why Jaxson Dart should be in for a big day against an Eagles defense that has failed to cover deep downfield while also lacking a formidable pass rush.
Let’s dive into the latest Jaxson Dart odds with my NFL picks for Sunday, October 26.
Jaxson Dart prop pick
Jaxson Dart best bet: Over 199.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
The first thing we’ll need to do here is look into the Philadelphia Eagles’ pass rush. New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart has been one of the better passers in the NFL this season, with a clean pocket, running a 103.8 passer rating according to PFF, but under pressure, his rating is just 52.1 — among the worst of all starters.
Now, Dart doesn’t usually get all that much time to throw and ranks just 22nd among all quarterbacks with a 64.4% clean-pocket rate, but Philly has ranked 14th-worst in that figure defensively this year and has allowed a 72.1% clean-pocket rate in the last two weeks, which is the 10th-highest.
The Eagles will be without Brandon Graham here due to a coach’s decision, and they’re already without a few edge rushers in Nolan Smith and Azeez Ojulari. It doesn’t seem like things will be improving for a lackluster Philly front seven, and that means Dart should have some time to operate in this one.
With that established, we can safely say that Dart will be going deep. A whopping 16.1% of his passing attempts have been of 20+ yards, the fifth most of any quarterback to take a snap this season and the third-most of any current starter.
The Eagles have allowed the seventh-highest explosive pass rate in the NFL to boot, so while Dart may have managed just 195 yards against Philly a couple of weeks ago, I think he’ll surpass that number here. He just went for 283 yards on just 15 completions against a decent Denver secondary.
Jaxson Dart same-game parlay
Jaxson Dart Over 199.5 passing yards
Jaxson Dart Over 39.5 rushing yards
Wan'Dale Robinson longest reception Over 18.5 yards
While Philly’s pass rush has malfunctioned this season and helped plenty of quarterbacks operate without the threat of pressure, it hasn’t prevented them from running the ball.
In fact, the Eagles have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to the position this season on just 30 attempts, and that should put Dart in a prime position to hit at least 40 yards once more, something he’d done in three straight games — including a win over the Eagles.
I’m also going with Wan’Dale Robinson to haul in a pass of at least 19 yards, something he’s done in five of his seven games this season. We noted that the Eagles have a tough time defending the deep ball, and Robinson ranks seventh in the league with 11 targets 20 or more yards downfield.
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