The Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Nashville to face the Tennessee Titans in an AFC South matchup. The Titans are atop the division and have a three-game lead with five games remaining.
Tennessee has owned this series over the last five years, winners of nine of the last 10 games. Can the Titans snap their two-game losing streak against Jacksonville on Sunday, or will the Jaguars pull off the upset on the road?
Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Jaguars vs. Titans on December 11.
Jaguars vs Titans best odds
Jaguars vs Titans picks and predictions
In the last five games that the Titans and Jaguars have played, the Titans have won them all. In fact, the Jaguars haven’t won at Nissan Stadium since 2013.
The Titans have mowed through the AFC South, winning all three games they have played against divisional foes. It is arguably the weakest of the eight NFL divisions.
The two-game losing streak for the Titans has come against teams with winning records (Bengals and Eagles). When it comes to playing opponents with losing records, Tennessee is a perfect 7-0 this season.
The Jaguars got shellacked by the Detroit Lions last week, 40-14. The Jags seem to hang around in most of their games, but against the Lions, they were down 23-6 by halftime and then watched helplessly as Detroit outscored them 10-0 in the fourth quarter.
Jacksonville is a hard team to peg. The Jags have a losing record but also upset both the Ravens and Chargers this year.
Tennessee, however, can avoid the upset if they get running back Derrick Henry going. The former All-Pro has disappeared in the last four games. After five straight contests with 100 yards or more, Henry hasn’t come close to that mark in his last four, including just 30 yards on the ground last week against the Eagles.
Jacksonville is 10th in defending the run, allowing an average of 113.6 yards a game. Henry’s production is going to be crucial with a Tennessee pass game that is third worst in the NFL, averaging 171.4 yards a game.
Part of that is due to quarterback Ryan Tannehill not having many quality targets to throw to. Both Treylon Burks and C.J. Board are questionable for Sunday’s game, and Kyle Philips and Racey McMath are each on the IR.
Fortunately, Jacksonville’s pass defense is awful. It ranks 30th in the league, giving up an average of 255.6 yards a game.
Either way, I see the Titans overwhelming the Jaguars and easily covering the 3.5-point spread.
My best bet: Titans -3.5 (-105 at PointsBet)
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Jaguars vs Titans spread analysis
The Titans have dominated the Jaguars historically and it will continue on Sunday, especially if Trevor Lawrence’s toe is still bothering him. He is listed as probable for the game, but if Lawrence reaggravates the injury, the Jaguars are left with C.J. Beathard.
That will put the Jaguars’ 14th-ranked passing offense under a lot of stress. They already are going to have to rely on putting the ball in the air, with their running game probably getting shut down by the Titans' third-best run defense.
The line of Titans -3.5 is a bit of an overreaction to Tennessee losing its last two games. Tennessee is also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against AFC opponents.
The Jaguars are 2-5-1 in their last eight ATS against a team with a winning record and 2-6-1 in their last nine ATS overall.
Usually, I would see a line like this and think it is a sucker’s line. In this instance, however, the sucker is me if I don’t bet it.
Jaguars vs Titans Over/Under analysis
With both defenses a bit suspect in guarding against the pass, I see a lot of points in this game. The Titans are 4-8 on the Under for the season but did manage to hit the Over in two of their last three games.
Tennessee should be able to find the end zone against a team that ranks 30th in pass defense. The Jaguars will probably opt for the pass over the run. While Tennessee is fantastic against the run, they rank 31st against the pass, allowing an average of 276.7 yards a game.
The Titans are 11th in points allowed per game (20.0), while the Jaguars are 16th, giving up 22.7 a contest.
Jaguars vs Titans betting trend to know
The Jaguars are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Tennessee. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Titans.
Jaguars vs Titans game info
| Location: | Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Sunday, December 11, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Titans -3.5, 41 O/U |
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Jaguars vs Titans weather
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