Arizona remains mired in mediocrity, and at 2-2 risks falling behind in a tight conference with 4-0 Philly heading into town.
Eagles vs Cardinals prop picks
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Eagles vs Cardinals Week 5 props
I don't think there's any one single prop I feel better about than the Under on James Conner's rushing yards this week.
There are few runners who are less efficient than Conner, who plodded his way to a 15-touchdown 2021 to trick some into thinking he's above replacement level. He is not.
After finishing last season 23rd in DYAR, 28th in DVOA, and 22nd in success rate on a 3.7 yards per carry mark, Conner is grinding out a 3.2 per carry mark this year. For Conner to go Over his rushing yards total in a given game, he has to be force-fed. He's gone Over this week's total in 10 of his 19 games with the Cardinals — nine of those 10 were wins.
The opportunity isn't great this week, as Conner and the Cards are 5.5-point home underdogs against arguably the NFL's best team, the Eagles. Like darn near every team Howie Roseman has constructed in Philadelphia, this Eagles team is ridiculously deep and talented in the trenches, and they've effectively muted run games for three straight weeks.
While not a tough task, the Eagles will make it four straight weeks of high-level run defense and hold Conner Under this total in a straightforward win.
James Conner Prop: Under 42.5 rushing yards (-115)
Brown always delivers
As if AJ Brown's early season usage in his new city wasn't encouraging enough, last week sent his outlook to the moon. In horrible conditions in Philadelphia, Brown still put together a five-catch, 95-yard performance as the Eagles stayed perfect against the Jags.
Despite a run-centric offense, a 1B receiver opposite him in DeVonta Smith, and one of the better pass-catching tight ends in Dallas Goedert to contend with, Brown's established himself as an elite volume receiver in Philly. The former Titan has seen a career-high 32.2% target share, which is comparable to that of Davante Adams in Green Bay — about as excellent of usage as a receiver can have.
Brown's usage is seemingly matchup- and situation-proof but despite this, we're still looking at just a 74.5-yard total this week. Not nearly high enough to make me flinch. This is an elite after-the-catch receiver who is locked in for a third of his team's targets, is running a route on nearly every dropback, and is averaging an absurd 3.40 yards per route run.
Now Brown gets to face one of the league's worst pass defenses in the Cardinals. Arizona's been repeatedly torched this year and sits 28th in pass defense DVOA and pass defense EPA.
Thankfully, Kyler Murray has enough magic in him to negate both Kliff Kingsbury's general incompetence and the risk of a blowout rendering this game uncompetitive — and the Eagles' passing attack an afterthought. Murray and Arizona will hang around enough to keep Brown involved and allow him to go Over this total.
A.J. Brown Prop: Over 74.5 receiving yards (-115)
It Ertz to see an old friend
With Kingsbury a fraud of the absolute highest order, there isn't very much I ever like about the Cards' passing game. One thing to like, however, is Zach Ertz's usage since coming to the desert in a trade from Philly last year.
Despite the tight end's advanced age and continued inability to create anything after the catch, Ertz has been utilized as a bona fide No. 1 tight end in Arizona.
After averaging 7.3 targets per game in 11 contests with the Cards last year, Ertz has seen an average of 7.75 per game in 2022, with his target share (18.3%) and route participation (83.6%) both very high for tight ends. The 32-year-old's usage has seen him average a strong line of 7.4 targets, 5.2 catches, and 50.3 yards per game as a Cardinal.
Ertz has topped his receiving total for the week, 42.5, in three straight games and in nine of 15 as a Card (with three more games with 42, 42, and 41 yards). With Arizona a 5.5-point dog at home against a relentless Eagles team, Kyler Murray will be dropping back a ton, as usual, with Ertz getting a heavy volume of targets — as usual.
With Ertz facing his old squad, and his new squad down DeAndre Hopkins while Rondale Moore, AJ Green, and Marquise Brown all manage injuries, expect the tight end to continue to see a healthy target share and produce as he has consistently in Arizona.
Zach Ertz Prop: Over 42.5 receiving yards (-103)