The defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs this Sunday.
The Bucs will look to take care of business as 8.5-point favorites but things could get messy with inclement weather expected. There's a high chance of rain in Tampa Bay on Sunday along with 20 mile per hour winds, which has seen this total plummet from an opening number of 49.
With both teams surely factoring this into their gameplans we try to find the best betting angles with our free player prop picks for the Eagles vs. Buccaneers.
Eagles vs Buccaneers prop picks
- Sanders Over 10.5 rush attempts (+105)
- Gronkowski Over 5.5 receptions (+120)
- Longest field goal Under 46.5 yards (-120)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Eagles vs Buccaneers Wild Card props
Miles from nowhere
We originally expected Bucs running back Leonard Fournette to have a big game with nasty weather in the forecast, but after he wasn't activated from the IR we're turning our attention to the other side.
The Eagles will have Miles Sanders back with "no limitations," according to coach Nick Sirianni despite undergoing hand surgery less than three weeks ago. Sanders was heating up prior to his injury, carrying the ball 24 times for 120 yards against the Jets in Week 13, picking up 131 yards on 18 rush attempts in the next game, and toting the ball seven times in the first half against the Giants before injuring his hand.
This is likely to be a ground game from both teams and Philly tends to lean on the run even in the best of weather. Sanders might have a tough time grinding out yards against this stout Tampa Bay run defense but he'll still get plenty of touches.
PICK: Miles Sanders Over 10.5 rush attempts (+105 at DraftKings)
The Bucs' passing game will likely be limited by the wind but let's be honest, Tom Brady is still going to throw the ball, especially to his most reliable target in the middle, Rob Gronkowski. Betting on receiving yards totals for Bucs players has been unpredictable for most of the season, with Brady spreading the ball out and Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, and Gronkowski just as likely to go off or be overlooked in any given game.
However, with Brown now spending his time vibing at parties with Kanye, and Godwin on the IR with a torn ACL, Gronk and Evans will receive the lion's share of the targets. Evans will likely be shadowed by shutdown cornerback Darius Slay on Sunday and Brady will have a tough time throwing it deep with winds gusting up to 30 mph, but the GOAT should be more likely to look for Gronk on short or intermediate routes.
Gronkowski had seven catches on 10 targets in each of his last two games, totaling 115 yards against the Jets and 137 versus the Panthers. He should be able to get open against an Eagles defense that allowed 6.3 receptions per game to tight ends, the highest number in the league.
PICK: Gronkowski Over 5.5 receptions (+120 at William Hill)
Kicking it old school
The skill position players aren't the only ones who will be affected by rough weather, as anyone who has ever kicked a ball into the wind can tell you. Eagles kicker Jake Elliot has a strong leg but has kicked a field goal of longer than 46 yards in just three of 17 games this season.
Tampa Bay kicker Ryan Succop has been even less likely to take a shot at the uprights from deep, connecting on a field goal from more than 42 yards out on just two occasions. With a cross breeze creating erratic conditions for kickers at Raymond James Stadium, we're taking the Under 46.5 on the longest field goal of the game.
PICK: Longest Field Goal Under 46.5 yards (-120 at bet365)
Same-Game parlay for Eagles vs Buccaneers
- Miles Sanders Over 44.5 rushing yards
- Tom Brady Under 279.5 passing yards
- Under 46.5
Best odds: +450 at DraftKings
If you want to get betting value on same-game parlays it's all about creating a narrative, and thankfully the weather gods have written that narrative for us in this matchup. Like we already mentioned, if wind and rain play a big factor, expect plenty of rush attempts and a decent number of yards from Sanders.
While that should also mean fewer passing yards from Jalen Hurts, the correlation between those two stats gives less of a payout than taking the Under 279.5 on Brady's passing yards, which will also be affected by messy conditions.
The icing on top of course is the full game Under. After all, high wind and rain will limit the downfield attacks of both teams and make both offenses a bit more predictable to stack the box against. The Eagles will likely lean even more on their strong running game to keep Brady off the field, while the Bucs will also look for shorter chunk plays to eat up the clock. With the total for this game continuing to drop, hit this number as soon as possible.