It’s Super Wild Card weekend and we’ve hit the books hard this week, looking into every NFL market in search of value and great numbers — so you don't have to.
We’re hitting the Over on a pair of running back props, jumping on the Dak Prescott bandwagon, and betting on the bromance of Tom and Rob.
We bring you our favorite free prop picks and predictions for the Wild Card round.
Latest NFL prop picks
- Gronkowski Over 5.5 receptions (+106)
- Prescott Over 274.5 passing yards (-114)
- Williams Over 56.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Michel Over 56.5 rushing yards (-110)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
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NFL Wild Card prop picks for Saturday
Tom Brady will enter Sunday’s game with a banged-up receiving corps, as Mike Evans and Breshad Perriman will draw the start. While many will want to lean on Evans in a game that will likely have poor playing conditions, we’re looking at Brady’s most trusted receiving option instead.
Rob Gronkowski has posted back-to-back seven-catch, 100-yard games, and could get a lot of action in the short passing game with the Eagles allowing the most catches to opposing tight ends in football. The Eagles gave up two TE touchdowns last week and haven’t faced a decent pass-catching TE since Jared Cook in Week 9.
Last week, with his incentives on the line, Gronk’s reception total closed at 6.5 but opened at 5.5 for Sunday’s matchup. With the likely rough conditions, we’re playing the Over on his reception total instead of his yardage total of 59.5. Ultimately, the plus-money price wins out here. Gronk has a 23% target share over the last two weeks as Brady and he are locked in at the perfect time.
PICK: Rob Gronkowski Over 5.5 receptions (+106 at FanDuel)
San Francisco might be the sharpest side of Sunday’s slate, but this is still one of the worst pass defenses in the playoffs and could struggle to contain Dak Prescott if Dallas’s offensive line can slow down the 49ers’ pass rush.
On the season, the 49ers rank 23rd in dropback EPA/play. Matthew Stafford had over 150 yards passing in the first half last week versus San Fran, Joe Burrow threw for 348 yards in Week 14, and this defense has not seen many Top 10 offenses over the last two months. The Cowboys are averaging 315 yards through the air over the last three weeks and Prescott is throwing for 306 yards per game over his last four home games.
Prescott could be picking up chunks of yards in the passing game as the 49ers’ defense sits in the Bottom 10 in explosive pass rate, while the Cowboys have the sixth most completed passes of 15 yards or more on the season. Dallas’s receivers are all healthy and with Ezekial Elliott looking better on the ground, this offense could be at its best Sunday.
Yes, Kellen Moore’s offense can be frustrating at times, but this is a good matchup for Prescott in a very favorable environment.
With the highest total on the board, points are expected and Dak and this passing game have a good matchup versus a questionable San Francisco secondary. FanDuel is the best spot to buy this number as they are sitting at 274.5 yards. We’d play this number up to 288 yards. Dallas is one of the heaviest passing teams in football.
PICK: Dak Prescott Over 274.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Special Williams unit
It will be Darrel Williams’ backfield again Sunday night, as fellow running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been ruled out for the Wild Card game. Williams rushed for 88 yards in Week 17 with CEH out of the lineup and could see a minimum of 15 carries in a game that Kansas City projects to play with the lead.
Williams’ matchup is also advantageous as the Steelers allow the second-most rushing yards to opposing running backs, at 120 yards per game. Over their last three games, the Steelers are allowing an average of 156 rushing yards, which is the third-highest mark in football over that stretch. Only three other defenses had more missed tackles than Mike Tomlin’s group.
Williams ran for 78 yards in the divisional round last year, with backfield all to himself, and could be asked to handle a heavier workload with Tyreek Hill banged up and the Kansas City offense taking fewer shots downfield.
This total opened at 56.5 yards after closing at 61.5 yards last week. It’s the Over for us as we expect the Chiefs to steamroll the Steelers, giving Williams ample opportunities to run the ball.
PICK: Darrel Williams Over 56.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Sony Michel has been playing over 90 percent of the snaps in the Rams’ backfield over the last six weeks and has topped 70 yards rushing in five of those games. Since Week 13, Michel is averaging 90 yards rushing and has hit triple digits twice over that stretch. With Matthew Stafford’s interceptions problems of late, it wouldn’t surprise us if Michel gets a ton of work. With a floor of 17 to 18 carries, Michel’s rushing prop at 56.5 yards seems like one of the more probable rushing totals on the board.
Michel has seen more carries than any back in football over the last four weeks (85 carries) and gets to run against a defense that he totaled 79 rushing yards against back in Week 14. The Cardinals allow 97.2 rushing yards per game to opposing backs, which is a middle-of-the-pack rate, and have given up 375 rushing yards over the last three weeks.
Darrell Henderson rushed for 89 yards on 14 carries in the first meeting while Michel had 79 yards in the second game these two teams played this season. With Henderson out of the picture and Cam Akers getting the scraps, we’re hitting the Over on Michel’s rushing total with confidence.
PICK: Sony Michel Over 56.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
NFL Wild Card prop picks for Friday
Deebo Samuel has become one of the most valuable players to his team in football. His role in the running game has become so prevalent that the wide receiver has 48 rushes over his last seven games and is coming off an eight-carry game with running back Elijah Mitchell in the lineup.
Many thought that Samuel’s rushing role would diminish with Mitchell drawing back in, but it was just the opposite last week in their win over the Rams. Samuel finished with eight carries, which was a five-week high. The receiver turned that into 45 rushing yards and has averaged 43.85 yards on the ground per game since Week 11. He’ll also likely be getting tackle Trent Williams back, who missed last week and ranks as the No. 1 run-blocking tackle per Pro Football Focus.
With all the talk about this Dallas defense, this is still a unit that teams can run against. They allow 4.5 yards per rush, which ranks 27th in the league. The 49ers will want to keep the game out of Jimmy Garoppolo’s hands and rush the ball a ton. Only four other teams ran the ball more this season than Shanahan and the 49ers.
Samuel will get his targets in the passing game, but we’re expecting six to eight rushes, which should give him a great opportunity to top his rushing total that sits at 28.5 yards. This number has opened higher than 28 yards in three of his last five weeks.
PICK: Deebo Samuel Over 28.5 rushing yards (-110 at Caesars)
Tom Brady is 7-1 SU in his last eight playoff games and he enters the Super Wild Card round as a heavy 8.5-point favorite. Strong winds and rain are expected, which has been the reason behind the total falling three points since opening. Field conditions will likely be rough considering the field at Raymond James Stadium is natural grass. Brady has rushed for zero or negative yards in seven of his last eight playoff games as the Tampa quarterback has been the king of the victory formation.
In NFL QB rushing totals, taking a knee counts towards your rushing total and is the reason Brady has finished with negative rushing yards in six of his last eight playoff games. The Goat has shown off his wheels this season, but he’s still topped more than two rushing yards just three times over his last 12 games.
The Eagles will likely have to rush the ball against this stout run defense and it’s just a bad matchup for Philadelphia — we think the weather favors the Buccaneers. We like Brady to complete plenty of short passes and will be looking for his completion prop to open and hit the Over on anything under 26 completions.
His rushing prop is always tempting at 1.5 yards, but with victory formation likely in the cards for Tampa Bay, we’re hitting the Under, as you should always do with Tom in the playoffs. This prop is 7-1 to the Under in Brady’s last eight playoff games. Some books have this total at 0.5 yards.
PICK: Tom Brady Under 1.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
The Kansas City offense hasn’t been as reliant on the deep pass of late, as Patrick Mahomes is more comfortable taking what defenses give him this season. He’s thrown for more than 270 yards just once in his last seven games and his 7.4 yards per attempt is by far the lowest in his career.
Tyreek Hill is dealing with a heel injury that kept him on the sidelines for the majority of last week, and with both running backs dinged up, Andy Reid might be forced to use the short passing game as an extension of the run game.
With Hill’s injury and the running back question marks, Mahomes’ completion total is unavailable as of Friday, but we’re looking to hit the Under on his passing yard total, which has gone Under in seven of his last nine games.
Over his last nine games, Mahomes has completed just nine passes of 40-plus yards. He ranks between Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill in air yards per attempt, which is telling. Pittsburgh ranks in the Top 10 in passing yards allowed per game at 217, and with the pressure TJ Watt can generate, deep routes will struggle to develop.
The Public loves to hit the Over on these props, but we’re going against the grain and hitting the Under in a game that Mahomes may not have to do too much to pick up the victory as a 13-point favorite.
PICK: Patrick Mahomes Under 280.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Matthew Stafford has tried to do too much at times of late and it’s costing his team possession of the ball. The Rams’ quarterback has an incredible eight interceptions over his last four games. He’s dealing with multiple injuries and has made some poor decisions with the ball over the last four to five weeks. Despite his recent generosity, we’re still getting a -122 price on his interception market heading into his Monday battle with the Cardinals, who average 0.8 picks per game and picked him off once in their Week 4 meeting.
Stafford’s inconsistencies were on full display last week in a game where things unraveled for the QB in the second half after a near-perfect first 30 minutes. He also picked up a foot injury later in that game and popped up on the injury report Thursday with a toe injury. He practiced in full, however, and will start and finish Monday’s playoff game, but the bumps and bruises seem to be catching up to the 33-year-old QB, who has just as many TD passes as interceptions over his last four games.
In his Week 4 home start against the Cardinals, Stafford had one of his worst games of the year, going 26 for 41 passing with two touchdowns and a pick, but then lit the Cards up in Week 14. It’s hard to know which Stafford we’ll get Monday night, but with some horrific passes of late and obviously not at 100 percent, we’re betting on the interceptions to keep coming.
JJ Watt could make a return and be useful in a limited pass-rushing role, while the Arizona defense comes into this road game healthy and picked off Russell Wilson last week.
PICK: Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 interceptions (-122 at FanDuel)
Season to date: 120-110 +9.66 units (Risking to win 1 unit per play)
NFL Wild Card Round prop betting card
- Rob Gronkowski Over 5.5 receptions (+106 at FanDuel)
- Dak Prescott Over 274.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Darrel Williams Over 56.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
- Sony Michel Over 56.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
- Deebo Samuel Over 28.5 rushing yards (-110 at Caesars)
- Tom Brady Under 1.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Patrick Mahomes Under 280.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 interceptions (-122 at FanDuel)