Week 13 kicks off with the Dallas Cowboys looking to get over a holiday defeat when they travel to NOLA to take on a New Orleans Saints team that is also trying to rebound after a Thanksgiving Day defeat.
How is Mike McCarthy’s absence going to affect the offense? Will Sean Payton commit to a starting QB? Find out in our free props and predictions for Cowboys vs. Saints.
Cowboys vs Saints prop picks
- Micah Parsons Under 6.5 tackles and assists
- Dalton Schultz Over 43.5 receiving yards
- Dak Prescott Under 9.5 rushing yards
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cowboys vs Saints TNF props
Livin’ La Micah Loca
Dallas defender Micah Parsons has been one of the most exciting players on this Dallas team all season. The No. 12 overall pick in the 2021 draft is the betting favorite to capture the Defensive Rookie of the Year award, entering Week 13 at -500. But just because the rookie is all over the field and making things happen, it doesn’t mean he's racking up tackles and assists.
Over his last four games, the Dallas linebacker has been disruptive in the backfield with a total of 6.5 sacks but has topped six total tackles just once. The New Orleans offense ran just 57 plays from scrimmage last week and is in the Bottom 5 in plays per game. It doesn't matter who is under center for the Saints, we’re not expecting them to move the offense down the field with ease. If Dallas gets up early, the Saints could do away with the run game, which would decrease the opportunities for Parsons to rack up tackles as most of his game is at the line of scrimmage. The Saints also allow just 1.7 QB sacks per game, which should cut into Parsons' production.
With Parsons making his impact on the pass rush, hitting seven total tackles should be a tough task for the rookie. We’re riding the Under 6.5 total tackles (tackles and assists) on the Dallas hybrid defender, who is 3-7 O/U on this total over his last 10 games.
PICK: Micah Parsons Under 6.5 tackles and assists (-115 at bet365)
Thou Schultz Pass
Running against the Saints is not a winning formula and that leaves QB Dak Prescott to do most of the damage through the air. CeeDee Lamb was a full participant at practice on Tuesday and will make up a pass-catching group that will consist of Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, and Noah Brown with Amari Cooper questionable and Cedrick Wilson likely out. Cooper was activated from the COVID list and is traveling with the team but his health and usage are in question.
Taking a shot at Lamb’s Over 64.5 yards certainly comes with its fair share of risks. Lamb is coming back after a concussion that sidelined him in Week 12. Concussions are scary things in betting as team/league spotters are watching for head contact and have the authority to take players out of games.
Instead of taking the No. 1 pass-catcher for the Cowboys in a game that the Saints could continue to struggle to put up points, we’re hitting TE Dalton Schultz with a receiving yards total of 43.5 yards.
Schultz was a huge part of the Dallas passing offense last week and finished with seven targets that he turned into three grabs for 46 yards and a score. It could have been a bigger day but a couple of drops cost him in the end. Blake Jarwin is doubtful to get back into the lineup on Thursday, meaning Schultz should see 95% or more of the snaps on offense. This 43.5 yard total is a four-week low for the Dallas TE who has at least 40 receiving yards in seven of his last nine games.
PICK: Dalton Schultz Over 43.5 yards (-110 at bet365)
Don’t Do It, Dak
The New Orleans QB situation may be a mystery Thursday, as head coach Sean Payton has not confirmed a starter, but rumors are saying Taysom Hill could draw the start. After Week 12’s no-show from Hill, we aren’t trusting Payton and his QB usage as this offense made the Lions/Bears game look entertaining last Thursday. If Hill does start, we'll certainly look to hit the Over on his rushing total but we won’t be saying the same for Dallas QB Dak Prescott.
The Cowboys QB has rushed the ball for just eight yards on three carries over his last three games. Since coming back from a calf injury, he’s rushed the ball just five times over four games. He hasn’t looked to take off, and with a talented pass-catching group that includes a pair of RBs he can check down to, there isn’t much reason for him to risk injury and grab a few extra yards. His rushing total is sitting at 9.5 yards in a game that Dallas is predicted to win as 4.5-point favorites. We aren’t likely to see the QB drop back 45 times, which decreases his chances of taking off significantly.
If Dallas has the ball at the end of the game, we could also be aided in some victory-formation kneel-downs that count as negative rushing yards in the NFL. It’s not often we take Unders in short QB rushing totals, but Dak has shown zero intentions of running the ball of late. A positive game script could also be in our favor.
PICK: Dak Prescott Under 9.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)