The Week 11 slate wraps up with a non-conference contest between the Dallas Cowboys and Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football.
Both teams will be well rested and ready to go, with Dallas coming off a bye and Las Vegas enjoying an extended break after last week’s Thursday night appearance.
Here are my early Cowboys vs. Raiders predictions and NFL picks for November 17.
Cowboys vs Raiders predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early MNF spread pick: Dallas Cowboys -3.5
This spread opened Dallas Cowboys -3, and early opinion on the visitor has tacked on an extra half-point hook.
The Cowboys come to Vegas with heavy hearts after the tragic death of DE Marshawn Keeland during the team’s bye week. Now the team is forced into the MNF spotlight with their focus and motivation unknown.
While I’m not happy laying a -3.5 with this Cowboys defense on the road, Matt Eberflus’ zone-heavy schemes will slow down the Las Vegas Raiders' passing game.
Veteran QB Geno Smith is notoriously bad against zone coverage (compared to his splits vs. man-to-man), and that may help Dallas avoid some of those miscues that make it one of the lowest-rated stop units in the land.
Offensively, the Cowboys can trade points with any team in the NFL. Dak Prescott is playing at a high level with two stud WRs in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
Las Vegas’ defense isn’t horrible, but it has been beaten up when taking on elite-level passers.
Early MNF total pick: Under 50.5
The total is climbing after opening at 49.5 and jumping to 50.5 on Sunday night. Should this number hit the key mark of 51 points, there could be buyback on the Under.
I mentioned the Dallas defense giving Smith fits with its zone-centric schemes. That could force Las Vegas to run more, leaning on explosive rookie RB Ashton Jeanty — especially with Smith limping out of last week’s loss to Denver with a sore quad.
The Cowboys’ run stop is almost as bad as its pass defense, sitting near the bottom of the NFL in many run stop measurements, including EPA allowed per handoff and Run Defense DVOA at FTN.
A steady dose of the rushing game could keep gains shorter and the clock ticking.
Dallas could also try for more balance between pass and run. The Cowboys have handed off at one of the lower rates but have seen a shift toward the ground game in their last three outings, increasing from a 37% run rate to 42.56%. That uptick in handoffs comes despite Dallas trailing big against Denver and Arizona the last two weeks.
If game script holds up, the Cowboys will put the ball in the hands of RB Javonte Williams in the second half and chew up time and possession.
Cowboys vs Raiders odds
- Cowboys vs. Raiders spread: Raiders +3.5
- Cowboys vs. Raiders moneyline: Cowboys -196, Raiders +164
- Cowboys vs. Raiders Over/Under: 50.5
How to watch Cowboys vs Raiders
- Cowboys vs. Raiders matchup
- Date: Monday, November 17, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Las Vegas, NV
- Venue: Allegiant Stadium
- TV: ESPN & ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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