The 8–8 Indianapolis Colts have dropped six straight games and will mercifully bring their season to a close against the 11–5 Houston Texans, who remain in the hunt for the AFC South crown.
With the finale holding no postseason implications for Indy, Riley Leonard will get the start after Philip Rivers’ unsuccessful attempt to carry the Colts into the playoffs. Find out who I like in my Colts vs. Texans predictions and NFL picks for this afternoon.
Colts vs Texans prediction
Colts vs Texans Best bet: Texans team total Under 24.5 (-118)
This is a matchup where both defenses have huge advantages over the opposing offenses. When the Indianapolis Colts have the ball, the Houston Texans rank first in the NFL in defending short passes, defending the pass with no blitz, defending the pass with no pressure, and in overall passing efficiency.
The Colts will be starting rookie Riley Leonard in his first career start, and he is not a huge passer as is. When the Texans have the ball, this Colts defense ranks seventh in the NFL in defending rushes from under center, fourth in defending designed runs, and third in overall rushing efficiency.
When these two teams met back in Week 13, a hobbled Daniel Jones was at the helm for the Colts, and the Texans were able to win a low-scoring 20-16 game in Indianapolis. One thing about the Colts' defense this season is that they have improved when facing a divisional opponent for the second time.
They allowed 20 points to the Titans in the first game but only 14 in the second. They allowed 36 points to Jacksonville in the first game but only 23 in the second. The Texans have failed to score 25 points in six of their last seven games and 11 of their 16 games overall this season.
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Colts vs Texans same-game parlay
To add to my best bet, I am going to load up on this game script with several Unders and the underdog to cover.
This game will likely be similar to the first matchup, and Woody Marks will struggle to run against this Colts defense, as we discussed with their matchup advantages.
Colts vs Texans SGP
- Texans team total Under 24.5
- Under 38.5
- Woody Marks Under 51.5 rushing yards
- Colts +9.5
Our big-ticket SGP: Someone has to score
Just because we are on all Unders doesn’t mean there won’t be any touchdowns, and Nico Collins scored in their last matchup, and he can do so again with a major boost to our odds.
Colts vs Texans SGP
- Texans team total Under 24.5
- Under 38.5
- Colts +9.5
- Woody Marks Under 51.5 rushing yards
- Nico Collins anytime touchdown
Colts vs Texans game predictions
Colts vs Texans moneyline prediction
The Texans are red hot and still need to win this game for hopes of a better seed, if not an outside chance of winning the AFC South.
Colts vs Texans spread prediction
Shane Steichen is 4-1 against the spread with the Colts when facing a defense that allows 17 points per game or less.
Colts vs Texans Over/Under prediction
Three of the last four matchups between these two teams have gone Under the game total.
Colts vs Texans odds
- Spread: Colts +10 | Texans -10
- Moneyline: Colts +400 | Texans -550
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 | Under 40.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Colts vs Texans trend to know
The Texans have only cashed the Over in seven of their last 22 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Texans.
How to watch Colts vs Texans
| Location | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date | Sunday, January 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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