Chiefs vs Cowboys Props & Best Bets for Thanksgiving Day Football

With the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys both seeded 10th in their respective conferences, this Week 13 showdown has entirely different levels of postseason implications than expected before the season started.

Here are my top Chiefs vs. Cowboys props and NFL picks for this Thanksgiving showdown on Thursday, November 27.

Chiefs vs Cowboys Thanksgiving Day props

Player	Pick
Dak Prescott	Over 9.5 rushing yards	-110
Travis Kelce	Under 60.5 receiving yards	-110
CeeDee Lamb	Over 74.5 receiving yards	-110

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Dak Prescott Over 9.5 rushing yards (-110)

Opposing quarterbacks have the third-most rushing attempts for the sixth-most yards against the Kansas City Chiefs, and Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has rushed at least four times in six of his past seven games for 104 total yards. 

The Chiefs also blitz at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, and an opposing quarterback has double-digit rushing yards against them in eight of 11 games, including in three of the past four.

Travis Kelce Under 60.5 receiving yards (-110)

The Cowboys have only allowed a pair of tight ends to top 60 receiving yards this season, and it took 12 targets each for Las Vegas Raiders star Brock Bowers to pile up 72 yards and New York Jets tight end Mason Taylor to finish with 67 receiving yards. 

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce remains a go-to option in the passing attack, but he’s finished with fewer than 60 receiving yards in five of 11 games, and multiple numbers are down that are concerning.

The 36-year-old veteran has his lowest aDoT (6.5) and highest drop percentage (8.5%) since the 2015 campaign, and he’s also sporting his lowest contested catch percentage (33.3%) since 2020.

CeeDee Lamb Over 74.5 receiving yards (-110)

Dallas wide receiver CeeDee Lamb has caught 28 passes for 410 yards across five games since returning from injury to clear this total in three of five. The upside here is he’s failed to haul in 20 targets during the run to leave plenty of yards on the board. 

Teammate George Pickens has been a machine the past two weeks and caught 18 of 20 looks for 290 yards, so I’m anticipating the Kansas City Chiefs defense having its hands full with the one-two punch, and Lamb garnering more than enough looks to put up 75 or more receiving yards again in Week 13.

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Chiefs vs Cowboys Thanksgiving Day prop betting card

• Prescott o9.5 rush yds (-110)
• Kelce u60.5 rec yds (-110)
• Lamb o74.5 rec yds (-110)

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