The 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs head to Empower Field at Mile High to take on the 8-2 Denver Broncos in a pivotal AFC West matchup on Sunday, November 16.
My early Chiefs vs. Broncos predictions and NFL picks expect Kansas City to take care of business and cover the number in one of the marquee matchups of Week 11.
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Chiefs vs Broncos predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Chiefs vs Broncos spread pick: Chiefs -3.5
Be ready for a lot of talk about Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid’s 22-4 record following a bye week heading into this AFC West showdown against the first-place Denver Broncos.
I think this is an accurate opening number, and I’m also expecting Kansas City money to move the number further toward the Chiefs. As a result, my early lean is to Kansas City -3.5.
The Broncos are definitely better than the display they put on against the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday Night Football last week, but they’ve also been inconsistent on offense, with below-average ranks in PFF offense grade, offensive DVOA, yards per play, and EPA per play.
While there’s no questioning the Denver defense, the Kansas City stop unit is also solid, and I give a notable advantage to the Chiefs at the quarterback position.
KC QB Patrick Mahomes ranks fourth in adjusted EPA per play while airing it out for 7.4 yards per attempt, while Broncos quarterback Bo Nix ranks 21st while throwing for just 6.1 YPA, after all.
Early Chiefs vs Broncos total pick: Under 44.5
The Under has hit in each of the past four meetings between the Chiefs and Broncos, and both teams have played to the Under this year: Kansas City checks in with a 3-6 Over/Under record, and Denver is 3-7.
As noted, these are also two solid stop units.
The Broncos have allowed the third-fewest points per game while ranking second in defensive DVOA and surrendering the third-lowest EPA per play.
It’s not quite as impressive on the opposite sideline, but the Chiefs still check in respectively with solid fourth, 13th, and 12th ranks.
I also value the Chiefs' leading the NFL in average drive length and ranking ninth in third-down conversion percentage, as well as fourth in converting fourth downs. Expect multiple long, clock-churning drives from Kansas City on Sunday.
Chiefs vs Broncos odds
- Chiefs vs. Broncos spread: Broncos +3.5
- Chiefs vs. Broncos moneyline: Chiefs -190, Broncos +160
- Chiefs vs. Broncos Over/Under: 44.5
How to watch Chiefs vs Broncos
- Chiefs vs. Broncos matchup
- Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Denver, CO
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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