Chargers vs Jaguars Predictions, Picks & Best Bets for Today's NFL Week 11 Game

Farley's prediction: Justin Herbert & Co. handle business against the Jags.

Sam Farley - Contributor at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Nov 16, 2025 • 09:20 ET • 4 min read

NFL

Match starts: 28 mins
JAC
34 %
LAC
66 %
EXPERT PICK - SPREAD
L.A. Chargers -3.0 (-105) L.A. Chargers -3.0 (-105)
Read Analysis
Promo image for Chargers vs. Jaguars, including Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence.
Photo By - Imagn Images. Promo image for Chargers vs. Jaguars, including Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence.

The Los Angeles Chargers visit the Jacksonville Jaguars this afternoon, entering as 3-point road favorites. 

Riding some strong momentum, the Chargers appear well-positioned to handle a Jaguars squad that squandered a sizable lead to the Texans last week.

Don’t miss our Chargers vs. Jaguars predictions and NFL picks for today's game.

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Chargers vs Jaguars prediction

Chargers vs Jaguars Best bet: Chargers -3 (-105)

In our early week picks and predictions, we advised taking the Los Angeles Chargers -2.5, and that hasn’t changed as the line has grown by half a point.

This is very much the case of a team that is showing real signs of improvement week after week, facing a team that is struggling.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are low on confidence following their embarrassing loss to the Texans last Sunday, in which they allowed Texans’ backup Davis Mills to score 26 unanswered points in the fourth quarter.

This defense is giving up the fifth most yards per game against the pass, a high 252.9 yards allowed every Sunday. After a hot start to the season, they’re starting to slow down.

We haven’t seen much real improvement for Trevor Lawrence under Liam Coen and he’s as erratic as ever, and Travis Hunter is now on IR, just as he was starting to take the WR1 spot.

Meanwhile, the Chargers are 7-3 in the AFC West, have covered in two of their previous three games, and feature an offense that is hugely improved from earlier in the season.

They’ve scored an average of 8.8 more points per game in the previous five games, as they did in the first five games of the season.

Chargers vs Jaguars same-game parlay

In addition to our best bet, we’re going to back Keenan Allen to have over 37.5 receiving yards. Allen has covered his prop number in six of 10 this season.

Finally, we’re taking Oronde Gadsden to score a touchdown. The Jaguars have allowed seven TDs to tight ends in nine games, and with Gadsden averaging two red zone targets per game, he’s the play.

Chargers vs Jaguars SGP

  • Chargers -3
  • Keenan Allen Over 41.5 receiving yards
  • Oronde Gadsden anytime touchdown

Our big-ticket SGP: Allen Wrench!

Allen has four touchdowns this season and leads the team in those valuable red zone targets, plus has the added potential of an increase in targets if McConkey or Johnston are out.

Chargers vs Jaguars SGP

  • Chargers -3
  • Keenan Allen Over 41.5 receiving yards
  • Oronde Gadsden anytime touchdown
  • Keenan Allen anytime touchdown

Chargers vs Jaguars game predictions

Chargers vs Jaguars moneyline prediction

The Chargers have won three games in a row and face a struggling Jacksonville team that's lost three of its last four. 

Chargers vs Jaguars spread prediction

The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in any of their previous four games.

Chargers vs Jaguars Over/Under prediction

The Over has cashed in four of L.A.'s last five games, and that's where I'm leaning in this game. 

Chargers vs Jaguars odds

  • Spread: Chargers -1.5 | Jaguars +1.5
  • Moneyline: Chargers -125 | Jaguars +105
  • Over/Under: Over 44.5 | Under 44.5

More NFL picks and odds from Covers


Chargers vs Jaguars trend to know

The Chargers have cashed the third-quarter Over in 14 of their last 19 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Jaguars.

How to watch Chargers vs Jaguars

Location Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Date Sunday, November 16, 2025
Kickoff 1:00 p.m. ET
TV FOX

Chargers vs Jaguars latest injuries

Chargers vs Jaguars weather

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Sam Farley
Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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