The Jaxson Dart era kicks off for the New York Giants on Sunday, with a tough debut test against the red-hot Los Angeles Chargers.
L.A. arrives at MetLife Stadium with a 3-0 record, powered by Justin Herbert and a rock-solid defense, but my Chargers vs. Giants predictions expect the visitors’ run game to join the party this afternoon.
Get the lowdown on this September 28 matchup with my free NFL picks and betting tips.
Chargers vs Giants prediction
Chargers vs Giants Best bet: Omarion Hampton Over 66.5 rushing yards (-114)
All eyes will be on Jaxson Dart this weekend as he tries to breathe life into this New York Giants season, but I’m picking another rookie to steal the headlines in this Week 4 clash.
Omarion Hampton has shown flashes of his upside through the first three games, and Sunday is set up nicely for a breakout performance. Hampton turned 19 carries into 70 yards and a TD against the Denver Broncos last weekend, and his workload is only going to climb after Najee Harris’ season-ending Achilles injury.
The hype around the Giants’ pass rush is valid, but their run defense has been a mess this year. The troubling signs were there in Week 1 as the Commanders shredded New York for 220 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, and even the Kansas City Chiefs’ below-average rushing attack passed the 100-yard mark in New York last Sunday.
That should allow the Los Angeles Chargers to ease the burden on Herbert, who threw 47 passes last time out, and the visitors won’t hesitate to tilt the script towards the run, particularly if they build a lead.
Hampton said it himself, he’s ‘gotta step up’ as the head of the Chargers’ rushing attack. On Sunday, count on him to do just that, adding to the Giants’ misery.
Chargers vs Giants same-game parlay
After the SNF no-show against the Kansas City Chiefs, changes felt inevitable in New York. Still, this is a tough spot to hand Dart his debut, with the L.A. defense ranking in the Top 10 in yards allowed per game against the run and the pass.
The Under is 4-2 in the Giants’ last six outings, and the hosts have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 11 of their past 19 games.
If the Chargers blanket Malik Nabers, I have my doubts about the other New York pass-catchers getting open consistently – and that sets up the Over on Dart rushing yards as a tasty prop. The rookie QB may have no choice but to shift into scramble mode, and he showed off his athleticism in his preseason cameos.
Chargers vs Giants SGP
- Omarion Hampton Over 66.5 rushing yards
- Under 43.5
- Jackson Dart Over 34.5 rushing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Backfields step to the front
There will surely be some easy throws built into the game plan for Dart this weekend, and Cam Skattebo should be a popular target for the new QB. Skattebo hauled in six catches for 61 yards in Week 3 against the Chiefs, and I like his path to 20+ receiving yards here. Watch for an uptick in snaps, too, with backfield mate Tyrone Tracy Jr. ruled out.
Chargers vs Giants SGP
- Omarion Hampton Over 66.5 rushing yards
- Under 43.5
- Jackson Dart Over 34.5 rushing yards
- Cam Skattebo Over 18.5 receiving yards
Chargers vs Giants game predictions
Chargers vs Giants moneyline prediction
New York is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games, so it’s no surprise to see the G-Men as home underdogs. The decision to name Dart as the starting QB for the rest of the season should energize the home crowd, but it’s hard to pick an upset here when the Giants have been held to single-digit points in two of their three outings this season. Plus, L.A. has won five straight against New York.
Chargers vs Giants spread prediction
The Chargers are an impressive 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games, and I expect the visitors to cover a number that’s just less than a touchdown. In Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Quentin Johnston, Herbert has three receivers capable of getting separation, and the run game is poised to do damage. In a likely slugfest, New York just doesn’t have the tools to keep up.
Chargers vs Giants Over/Under prediction
With Jesse Minter masterminding an elite L.A. offense, look for Derwin James & Co. to nudge the total towards the Under, which has hit in the Chargers’ last two contests. The Giants should be able to generate pressure on Herbert, and it’s fair to expect some nervy moments from Dart, especially on clear passing downs.
Chargers vs Giants odds
- Spread: Chargers -6 | Giants +6
- Moneyline: Chargers -279 | Giants +235
- Over/Under: Over 45 | Under 45
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Chargers vs Giants trend to know
The Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 outings. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Giants.
How to watch Chargers vs Giants
| Location | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date | Sunday, September 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | DAZN |
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