The Atlanta Falcons return from their Week 12 bye to host the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, December 1.
Los Angeles will have a new look in the backfield against the susceptible Atlanta rush defense, and today's Chargers vs. Falcons predictions and NFL picks expect Gus Edwards to have a solid day behind a healthy LA offensive line.
Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. EST from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, with the game airing on CBS.
Chargers vs Falcons prediction
Who will win?
While the NFL odds have this game pegged as one of the closest of Week 13, I’m happy to side with the Los Angeles Chargers because they have the better quarterback, coach, and defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have the benefit of extra rest following their bye week, but they’ve also allowed the third-highest third-down conversion rate to opposing offenses, and I’m expecting the Bolts and quarterback Justin Herbert to move the football with ease Sunday.
My best bet
Gus Edwards Over 46.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Los Angeles Chargers running back Gus Edwards is positioned to receive double-digit carries out of the backfield with lead back J.K. Dobbins (knee) expected to miss the foreseeable future. Edwards should also be relatively fresh with just 25 rushes across three games since returning from an ankle injury.
There’s also statistical correction ahead across the board for Edwards. His yards per carry, yards after contact per carry, breakaway percentage, and PFF elusiveness rating are all career-low marks.
Obviously, the 29-year-old back isn’t going to morph back into the explosive runner he was to start his career with the Baltimore Ravens. Still, there will be enough volume for him to clear this pedestrian total in Week 13 against the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons have allowed an opposing rusher to top this 46.5-yard threshold in 10 of 11 games while ranking 28th in run-stop win rate and allowing the third-highest rushing success rate, after all. In the lone outlier game, Atlanta surrendered 73 yards on 15 carries (4.87 per tote) to Tampa Bay Buccaneers running backs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving in Week 8.
Finally, the Chargers have an above-average offensive line and rank 14th in run-block win rate and 11th in PFF run-blocking grade, and they also don’t have a single offensive lineman on the Week 13 injury report.
Chargers vs Falcons same-game parlay
Gus Edwards Over 46.5 rushing yards
Justin Herbert Over 20.5 pass completions
Cameron Dicker Over 1.5 field goals made
Atlanta plays zone coverage 79.3% of the time (third most) and generates quarterback pressure the third least (17.6%). As a result, I’m anticipating that Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert will have an opportunity to pick the Falcons apart, with plenty of time to go through his progressions behind a healthy Los Angeles OL. I expect Atlanta to take away the deep ball which will open up plenty of looks for Herbert underneath.
Plus, Herbert sports an NFL-best 92.3 PFF passing grade when throwing from a clean pocket.
Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker has hit 17 of 18 field goals through seven games since the Los Angeles bye in Week 5, and he's hit two or more in six of those contests, including each of the past three.
This matchup also has a healthy 48.0 total at BetMGM, and the Falcons have allowed 25 field goals through 11 games, too. Playing inside the dome with perfect kicking conditions is another plus for Dicker going Over the number in the projected high-scoring game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Chargers vs Falcons odds
Chargers vs Falcons live odds
Chargers vs Falcons opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles -1 | Atlanta +1
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -117 | Atlanta +104
- Over/Under: Over 48 | Under 48
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Chargers vs Falcons spread and Over/Under analysis
- This game has seen a lot of back-and-forth betting action with the number opening at Los Angeles -1.5 at BetMGM and moving to -2 multiple times before settling at Chargers -1, as of Friday afternoon.
- The Falcons are just 2-4 against the spread at home and 5-6 overall, while the Chargers are 3-2 ATS on the highway and 7-4 overall.
- There hasn’t been a notable move to the BetMGM total. It opened at 47.5 and has climbed to 48, as of Friday afternoon.
- It’s notable that both teams sport a 4-7 Over/Under record, and interestingly Atlanta has gone Under the number in three straight, while Los Angeles has gone Over in three straight.
- 62% of Covers Consensus users are backing Los Angeles on the spread, while 51% are taking the Over.
Chargers vs Falcons betting trend to know
The Atlanta Falcons have allowed an opposing running back to rush for at least 55 yards in 10 of 11 games this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Falcons.
Chargers vs Falcons game info
| Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-1, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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