The Philadelphia Eagles are quickly becoming that one team I can’t win with or against, which may serve as a warning for the rest of this NFL betting breakdown. And I’m not alone.
Philadelphia opened 1-3 ATS in the first four weeks but has since gone 3-1 against the spread, including a 44-6 beatdown of the Lions last Sunday. Adding to that enigma is a puzzling pointspread for Week 9’s homestand against the Los Angeles Chargers, with Philadelphia opening as big as a 3-point underdog and slimming as low as +1.
Check out our NFL free picks and predictions for Chargers at Eagles on November 7.
Chargers vs Eagles odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Philadelphia hit the board as big as +3 on Sunday night and slowly ticked down to as low as +1 as of Tuesday, with some buyback on the Bolts ticking the spread back to Los Angeles -1.5. The total for this non-conference clash opened at 51 points and slid down as low as 49.5 before settling in at 50.
Chargers vs Eagles picks
Picks made on 11/3/2021 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for NFL Week 9, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Sign up with Caesars and get your first bet matched up to $1,001! Claim Now
Canada: Get a 100%-matched sign-up bonus (up to $400) at BetVictor. Claim Now
Chargers vs Eagles game info
• Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Sunday, November 7, 2021
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Chargers at Eagles betting preview
Chargers: Alohi Gilman S (Out), Michael Davis CB (Out), Justin Jackson RB (Out), Asante Samuel Jr. CB (Out).
Eagles: J.J. Arcega-Whiteside WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 35-17 in Eagles’ last 52 home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Eagles.
Chargers vs Eagles predictions
Eagles +1.5 (-110)
OK, I’m going with the Eagles here, but knowing that they’re nowhere as good as that ass-waxing of the winless Lions would lead us to believe. Detroit is pretty bad. However, sometimes that cupcake opponent is just what the doctor ordered, and this young Philadelphia side and new coaching staff gets a shot of much-needed confidence in the arm before heading home to host the Bolts.
The Eagles rushing game finally had its moment in the sun (if that can happen playing inside a dome) with a huge day in Detroit, amassing 236 yards on 46 carries – despite losing star RB Miles Sanders to injury the week before. The trio of Jalen Hurts, Jordan Howard and Boston Scott was relentless on the ground, and now takes on a L.A. stop unit getting gashed by opposing run attacks to the tune of +0.043 EPA per handoff on the season (dead last in the NFL).
The Chargers allowed New England to rush for 141 yards on 39 attempts, with the Patriots controlling the tempo and clock for 35:24 in time of possession. That’s been a problem all season for the Bolts, who only get to touch the football for an average of 28:27 per game (25th). That doesn’t leave much time for Justin Herbert and the offense to do damage.
Speaking of Herbert, he’s finally hit some growing pains 22 games into his pro career. The Chargers quarterback has struggled in the last two outings, passing for a total of just 418 yards on 40-of-74 completions with a TD-to-INT count of 3-3. Granted, those game were against the Ravens and Patriots – two of the top defensive scheming clubs of the past decade – but could the blueprint for slowing down Herbert now be written?
The Chargers wide receivers haven’t helped Herbert out either, with guys like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams making crucial drops. Los Angeles ranks second in total dropped passes with 16 and that’s played a role in a dismal 7-for-24 count on third downs in those two losses. Add in the potential for rain later into Sunday’s 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff, and Philly could be a tough place for the Bolts to get right.
Under 50 (-110)
The Eagles defense has slowly improved over recent weeks, though allowing big scores to offenses like Las Vegas and Tampa Bay may cloud that progression.
Since Week 5, Philadelphia owns a defensive EPA per play of -0.054, which ranks eighth in the NFL during that span. The team has been especially strong against the pass (-0.055 per dropback) and enters Week 8 ranked No. 12 in Pass Defense DVOA at Football Outsiders.
This Philadelphia stop unit protects against the big play, allowing only 17 completions of 20 or more yards, and only blitzes on 15.7 percent of dropbacks while still creating a respectable pressure rate of 25.4 percent. Its average depth of target allowed is an NFL-low 6.4 yards, keeping everything in front of them.
If the Eagles run game can roll over the Bolts and limit the amount of time Herbert has with the football, this L.A. offense could press for bigger gains rather than opt for the checkdown, which is something that the Chargers struggled with against New England. The Bolts have seen their air attack stunted away from L.A., dropping from 7.5 yards per completion at home to just 6.6 on the road (24th).
Dallas Goedert Over 58.5 receiving yards (-115)
When the Eagles do opt to throw the ball, you can be sure Chargers pass rush artist Joey Bosa will be hot on the tail of Jalen Hurts. That means plenty of quick-release passes to budding TE Dallas Goedert, who has posted 70 and 72 yards receiving in the past two games.
Goedert faces a Bolts defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends, with an average of 74.57 yards per game allowed and five total touchdowns to the position. The Eagles’ RPO-heavy playbook (highest rate in the league by a mile) will keep the Bolts guessing, and leave room for Goedert to block and release for big gains.
Los Angeles has struggled to contain TEs against similar RPO offenses, with Chiefs TE Travis Kelce posting 104 yards against in Week 3 and Ravens TE Mark Andrews going for 68 yards and a TD in Week 6.