The 13-3 Denver Broncos can clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a home win over the 11-5 Los Angeles Chargers, who are likely to rest several key players with little to play for.
While Week 18 props are limited due to uncertain rotations and gameplans, there’s still enough opportunity to find value.
Here are my top three Chargers vs. Broncos player props and NFL picks for Sunday, January 4.
Chargers vs Broncos props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Bo Nix |
Under 218.5 passing yards | -114 |
| RJ Harvey |
Under 14.5 rushing attempts | -130 |
 Trey Lance |
Under 29.5 rushing yards | -114 |
Prop bet #1: Bo Nix Under 218.5 passing yards
Bo Nix has had an incredible second year with the Denver Broncos, leading them to the best record in the AFC. However, there have been games this season where he was relied on to just not make mistakes and let the run game and defense take over. This matchup is one of those games.
In their Week 3 game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Nix had only 153 yards passing in a 23-20 loss. This time, they will be big favorites with the Chargers resting players, but it is still a bad matchup for him. The Chargers have played zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL.
Against such coverage, Nix has averaged 6.5 yards per attempt, which is the fifth-lowest mark in the NFL. Given the matchup and the likely game script of them playing with the lead early, I do not expect much passing from Nix, especially late, which should keep him Under this number.
Prop bet #2: RJ Harvey Under 14.5 rushing attempts
Even though we just talked about how much the game script will go towards the run game, this number is still just too high for RJ Harvey. While he has been the feature back for a good chunk of the season since the J.K. Dobbins injury, he still hasn’t carried that huge of a workload on the ground.
Harvey only has two games all season with more than 14 carries, and that was the first two games of December in wins over the Las Vegas Raiders and Green Bay Packers. He had only two carries against the Chargers previously, granted that was with a healthy Dobbins.
Jaleel McLaughlin has seen a lot of work recently in the run game as well, and should continue this week before they enter the playoffs. I know the Broncos will be playing for the win, but that does not mean they will run their most important players into the ground before the crucial games begin.
Prop bet #3: Trey Lance Under 29.5 rushing yards
While Trey Lance was known for being a bit of a dual-threat quarterback back when he was drafted number three overall in 2021 to the San Francisco 49ers, he has not been very run-heavy in his recent games outside of San Francisco.
He has only started one such game, and it was for Dallas last season in Week 18. In that game, Lance only ran six times for 26 yards against a Washington Commanders team that was resting many of their main players in preparation for the playoffs.
Lance was also sacked twice in that game. I expect this fierce Broncos pass rush to be able to get after him and not let him scramble.
In the Week 3 matchup, Justin Herbert was held to only six yards rushing on two carries. Herbert may not seem like as big a rushing threat as Lance, but Herbert has averaged 6.0 rush attempts and 31.1 rushing yards per game this season. I don’t see many rushing opportunities against this defense for Lance.
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