The Arizona Cardinals initially caught my eye as moneyline underdogs, but significant line movement has pushed them to 2.5-point road favorites over the New York Giants ahead of this afternoon’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff at MetLife Stadium.
The price may have changed, but my initial Cardinals vs. Giants prediction hasn’t. With key injuries leaving New York’s defense vulnerable, backing Arizona remains my top play in my free NFL picks for Week 4.
TOP Pick
Cardinals vs Giants prediction: Cardinals moneyline
While there has been massive movement to the Arizona Cardinals moneyline since I recommended it Monday, I still see value to 59%.
The New York Giants have an inexperienced secondary thanks to injuries, and while the touted front seven has playmakers, the G-Men rank last in pressure percentage and 26th in pass rush win rate.
Giants three-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Brian Burns (knee) was placed on Injured Reserve this week, too.
Arizona has faced the hardest schedule per PFF and seventh-hardest opposing defensive schedule by DVOA, too, so ranking 10th in offensive success rate has my attention.
Cards QB Jacoby Brissett also ranks third in adjusted completion percentage and 14th in adjusted EPA per play, so I’m confident he can move the ball in winning fashion with New York ranking 21st in defensive DVOA and allowing the sixth-highest EPA per play.
COVERS INTEL: The Cardinals are tied for the eighth-fewest third-down conversions allowed, while Giants QB Jameis Winston has a 38.4 passer rating with the lowest adjusted EPA per play on third downs the past two weeks.
Cardinals vs Giants combo
Beyond the favorable matchup for Brissett and the Arizona offense, I expect New York to struggle to defend Cards tight end Trey McBride.
The go-to option has garnered 30.1% of targets for 27.7% of air yards in the Arizona pass attack, and Brissett has posted a high-end 116.5 NFL passer rating when targeting McBride this season.
Cardinals vs Giants combo
- Cardinals moneyline
- Jacoby Brissett 225+ passing yards
- Trey McBride 70+ receiving yards
Cardinals vs Giants touchdown scorer: Trey McBride
Continuing with McBride, he has scored in 11 of his past 20 games, to go along with a 40% red-zone target share for the Cards through three weeks.
The Giants also allowed an 82.4% completion percentage to tight ends through their first two games before playing in horrible weather in Week 3, so with New York also allowing touchdowns on 77.8% of its trips to the end zone, I recommend McBride to score up to 58% against the injury-depleted secondary today.
Cardinals vs Giants player prop: Jacoby Brissett Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Brissett threw for two touchdowns last week against the San Francisco 49ers, and the Giants allowed six touchdown passes through the first two weeks of the season.
The New York defensive injuries aren’t being fully accounted for in this prop, and I’d recommend Brissett for two-plus passing touchdowns to 50% because the Giants are being given too much credit for a strong defensive game in miserable weather against the Tennessee Titans in Week 3.
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- Top picks: 21-15, +5.67 units
- Combos: 0-7, -7.00 units
Cardinals vs Giants odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Cardinals -2.5 | Giants +2.5
- Over/Under: 44.5 (49%) | Under 44.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Cardinals 57% | Giants 44%
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Cardinals vs Giants weather
The forecast calls for comfortable autumn weather around 66°F with a mix of sun and clouds, in addition to gentle 8 mph winds and a 36% chance of light rain showers during the game.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Cardinals vs Giants trend to know
The Giants have only won seven of their last 19 games for -2.40 units and a -11% ROI. Find more NFL betting trends for Cardinals vs. Giants.
How to watch Cardinals vs Giants
| Location | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Cardinals vs Giants latest injuries
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