Buccaneers vs Saints Week 2 Props: Brady Busted by the Dome Patrol Again

The NFC South's 1-0 teams will collide on Sunday in Week 2, with Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading to the Big Easy to take on the New Orleans Saints.

Brady and Tampa strolled past a lethargic Cowboys outfit last week to begin their final ride together with a win, while New Orleans required a little Jameis magic — and an ugly Atlanta collapse — to put its hated rivals to bed.

The Buccaneers vs. Saints should be an excellent game between two well-rounded teams — check out our best NFL player prop picks for Tampa and New Orleans, ahead of Week 2.

Buccaneers vs Saints prop picks

• Brady Over 0.5 interceptions
• Landry Over 45.5 receiving yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Buccaneers vs Saints Week 2 props

Tommy turnover

In leaving bitterly cold New England — as well as bitter and cold Bill Belichick — for Tampa Bay, Tom Brady found himself in a situation that cut him loose for the first time.

Under Bruce Arians' "No risk it, no biscuit" approach, Brady posted two years of volume stats unlike anything he had done since the late 2000s. However, Brady's encountered something else unlike anything he had experienced: A divisional foe he can't just stroll over.

While Brady's added gaudy stats to his already irreplicable resume in the NFC South, the Saints have proven to be a tricky opponent for the GOAT.  

In Brady's 30 regular season games with Tampa against non-Saints opponents, he's averaged 304.1 yards, 2.6 touchdowns, and 0.56 interceptions per contest. In four regular season games against New Orleans as a Buc, however, Brady's per-game averages are 259.25 yards, 1.5 TDs, and 2.0 interceptions.

Those stats highlight a matchup that has seen Brady and the Bucs go 0-4, with the QB taking 13 sacks — the most he's taken against any one team during that time — along the way. Typically the picture of composure, New Orleans' defense renders Brady a scattershot mess.

Since joining the Bucs, Tom Brady has the lowest rate of turnover-worthy plays in the league at 1.8% (including playoffs).

However, 10 of his 26 turnover-worthy plays have come in just four games against the Saints#SNF #NOvsTB

— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) December 20, 2021

Week 2 presents a tricky spot for Brady to snap out of his NOLA funk. He's on the road in a hostile environment, he'll be without his best route runner in Chris Godwin, and the offensive cohesion is still playing catchup after Brady missed a large chunk of August.

Count on the Saints D to turn Brady over. 

Tom Brady Prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (-125)

Extra Juice

Something extraordinary happened in Week 1: A receiver in his age-30 season, who was still a free agent well into May, looked more dynamic than he has in years. In his triumphant return to Louisiana, former LSU wideout Jarvis Landry played like a completely new receiver.

It wasn't Landry's stat line — seven catches for 114 yards — that popped off the screen, as a three-time 1,000-yard wideout. No, it was how and where Landry's production came that was wild to witness, after years of the receiver being utilized underneath and in space to produce after the catch. In the Saints' vertical offense, Landry was pushed downfield unlike ever before. 

From 2018 to 2021, Landry averaged 4.67 yards after the catch per reception, with an average depth of target of 9.2 yards (and a steady decline year after year, with an aDOT of 11.0 in 2018 falling to 7.9 by '21). In his Saints debut, Landry averaged just 2.1 yards after the catch — due to an aDOT of 13.7. 

Between Landry's role in this offense, Michael Thomas and Chris Olave's ability to work underneath, and a vertical scheme, this isn't an anomaly. Landry will be used further downfield than ever before and be able to pick up huge chunks of yardage in the process.

With a relatively modest yards total on the board in Week 2, we can take advantage of Landry's expanded route tree and hit the Over. 

Jarvis Landry Prop: Over 45.5 receiving yards (-115 at PointsBet)

Odds to watch for: Russell Gage receiving yards

Over the last decade or so, New Orleans has lived life on the edge of the salary cap. Converted salaries and void years became the norm for a Saints team trying to squeeze every drop out of the Drew Brees era, flexing impressive financial willingness for what is relatively cash-strapped ownership. 

Unfortunately for New Orleans, the flip side of that approach reared its head just before the regular season. The Saints inexplicably traded Chauncey Gardner-Johnson to the Eagles for a day three pick, opting against handing out a massive extension to him.

One problem: Gardner-Johnson is more than worth what he'll eventually get, after establishing himself as one of the NFL's elite slot corners. 

The trade left New Orleans without a modern, versatile defender in its secondary — and short on bodies in a tricky matchup with the Bucs. And while the Saints have one fewer weapon to worry about, with Godwin out, they do still have to account for a damn good slot receiver.

Former Falcon Russell Gage had established himself as a reliable wideout over the past couple of seasons before he really broke out to close last year, as he averaged 6.3 catches and 76.4 yards over the final eight games for a talent-poor Atlanta team.

That led the Bucs to give him a three-year, $30 million deal in free agency — in part as a contingency against Godwin's healing ACL. While Gage only played 42% of snaps in Week 1, with the Bucs playing a lot of heavy sets, his usage will rise this week as Julio Jones and Mike Evans play on the outside. (Head coach Todd Bowles hasn't sounded concerned about any of Jones, Evans, or Gage's questionable status for Sunday.)

That will leave Gage to work where he's best — and where Brady loves to throw — over the middle, against a Saints defense that will sorely miss its former slot corner extraordinaire. 

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