First place in the NFC South is on the line as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit Bank of America Stadium to face the Carolina Panthers this afternoon.
While neither team has capitalized on their opportunities to take control of the division, I’m counting on Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield rising to the occasion in Week 16, and he headlines my top Buccaneers vs. Panthers predictions and NFL picks in this pivotal NFC South showdown.
Buccaneers vs Panthers prediction
Buccaneers vs Panthers Best bet: Baker Mayfield Over 228.5 passing yards (-114)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a healthy receiver corps for the first time all season, and quarterback Baker Mayfield aired it out for his highest passing-yards total (277) on Thursday Night Football last week since going good for 379 yards through the air in Week 5 against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field.
He also posted an impressive 8.8 yards per attempt and the fifth-highest air yards of Week 15.
This is a soft matchup for Mayfield to succeed in, too.
The Carolina Panthers have been gashed through the air the past two games for a 68.9 completion percentage and 8.44 yards per target while allowing the fifth-highest dropback success rate and ranking 24th in pass defense DVOA.
Now that Mayfield has his full receiving corps back on the field, he can pick apart a Carolina defense generating QB pressure at the second-lowest rate in the NFL and ranking 31st in PFF pass rush grade.
The veteran has a 65.7 completion percentage and 78.0 PFF passing grade when throwing from a clean pocket compared to respective 50.4 and 40.6 marks when under pressure, too.
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Buccaneers vs Panthers same-game parlay
In addition to Carolina's shortcomings on defense, the Black Cats haven’t been an offensive force, either. Quarterback Bryce Young sports below-average marks in YPA, aDoT, and EPA_CPOE composite, and I think the Tampa Bay defense can largely hold the Panthers' rushing attack in check.
Tampa ranks 10th in rush defense DVOA while allowing the fourth-lowest rushing success rate, after all.
With the Panthers allowing seven rushing touchdowns through their past four games, I’m targeting Bucs back Sean Tucker to find pay dirt for the sixth time in the past six games.
Tucker handled a team-high five red-zone carries the past two weeks, and all seven of his touchdowns have come across the past nine games.
Buccaneers vs Panthers SGP
- Buccaneers -3
- Baker Mayfield Over 228.5 passing yards
- Sean Tucker anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Parade of points
Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-highest EPA per dropback since its Week 9 bye, so I expect Young and the Panthers to put enough points on the board to do their part in sending this total Over the number.
Buccaneers vs Panthers SGP
- Buccaneers -3
- Over 45.5
- Baker Mayfield Over 228.5 passing yards
- Sean Tucker anytime touchdown
Buccaneers vs Panthers game predictions
Buccaneers vs Panthers moneyline prediction
Tampa Bay ranks higher than Carolina in both offensive and defensive DVOA and has better EPA per play marks on both sides of the football. Mayfield turning in his best passing performance in weeks is encouraging, and all the more so with Carolina's pass defense fading.
Buccaneers vs Panthers spread prediction
I also have confidence in the Tampa Bay defense doing just enough to keep Young and the Panthers off balance on offense to cover the number. Still, Carolina is a candidate for 6-point teasers this week with the spread all the way up to +9 and through multiple key numbers.
Buccaneers vs Panthers Over/Under prediction
In addition to the highlighted cases for the Over, the Bucs and Panthers have gone Over the number in four of their past five games. Tampa Bay has also played to the Over in consecutive games and 13 of the past 21 dating back to last season.
Buccaneers vs Panthers odds
- Spread: Buccaneers -3 | Panthers +3
- Moneyline: Buccaneers -158 | Panthers +134
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 | Under 45.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Buccaneers vs Panthers trend to know
The Buccaneers have cashed the Over in 13 of their last 21 games for +4.2 units and an 18% ROI. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Panthers.
How to watch Buccaneers vs Panthers
| Location | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Sunday, December 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Buccaneers vs Panthers latest injuries
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