Broncos vs Bears Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 4: Wilson & Co. Get Right in Chicago

A couple of winless teams face off in Week 4 of the NFL with the Chicago Bears hosting the Denver Broncos. Not only are both teams 0-3 to start off the year but they are coming off humiliating defeats: The Broncos surrendered 70 points to the Dolphins and the Bears lost by 31 to the Chiefs.

Chicago hasn't won a game since last October and oddsmakers don't expect that streak to end this week, with NFL odds opening with Denver opening as a 3-point road favorite. Here are my free NFL picks for the Broncos vs. Bears picks on October 1. 

Broncos vs Bears odds

Broncos vs Bears predictions

It seems strange to say after their 50-point curb-stomping by the Dolphins in Week 3, but the Denver Broncos offense has actually shown improvement under new head coach Sean Payton. Yes, the Broncos were dominated in every facet of the game against Miami, but they did have some success moving the chains in the first half before pulling many of their starters after the game got out of hand.

Their biggest issue on offense was protecting quarterback Russell Wilson, but he still played pretty well and the offensive line should be much better against a Chicago Bears defense that has just a single sack this season. 

Chicago's defense has been pathetic, although that's no surprise considering the Bears were dead last in the league in EPA/play a year ago. While they added free agents like Tremaine Edmunds, Yannick Ngakoue, DeMarcus Walker, and T.J. Edwards, none of those players have done anything to turn around this stop unit.

Ngakoue and Edmunds both have defensive grades below 60 according to PFF while Walker has just three tackles and no sacks after three games. Edwards has been the only solid addition but he doesn't make enough big plays to have much of an impact. 

Chicago made Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield look like franchise QBs in Weeks 1 and 2 before getting eviscerated by Patrick Mahomes last week. The Bears were lucky their 41-10 loss to the Chiefs wasn't more lopsided since K.C. barely tried in the second half after rolling up 312 yards and a 34-0 lead at halftime. 

Wilson doesn't look like the nine-time Pro Bowler that he was with the Seahawks, but he has still performed much better under Payton. Wilson has thrown for more than 300 yards in back-to-back contests and his pass efficiency rating of 99.5 is 15 points higher than his disastrous first year in Denver.

The Broncos also have some weapons around him with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and rookie Marvin Mims Jr. making up a dangerous trio of receivers.  

I'm not sure if Chicago's struggling offense can take advantage of Denver's leaky defense but the Broncos' improved attack will be able to exploit a Bears stop unit that has been awful. They dropped 33 points against the Commanders in Week 2 and should be able to eclipse their team total of 24.5 on Sunday. 

My best bet: Broncos team total Over 24.5  (+100 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Broncos vs Bears same-game parlay

Broncos TT Over 24.5

Russell Wilson 275+ passing yards

Roschon Johnson Over 32.5 rushing yards

+649 at FanDuel

With Wilson throwing for 614 yards in his last two games and actually slinging the ball downfield (his 7.1 air yards per completion ranks sixth in the league) he should be able to put up yards against a Bears secondary that is surrendering 285.7 passing ypg. Especially with Chicago missing its two best defensive backs this week as cornerback Jaylon Johnson and safety Eddie Jackson are sidelined by injuries.

That said, this Denver defense is also terrible and surrenders a league-worst 177.7 rushing yards per game on 5.6 yards per carry. It's also missing key starters on defense with edge Frank Clark, linebacker Joey Jewell, and defensive tackle Mike Purcell ruled out and safety Justin Simmons listed as questionable.

Bears rookie Roschon Johnson was drafted in the fourth round but is a talented RB who found himself behind Bijan Robinson at Texas. He's been splitting snaps in the backfield with Khalil Herbert and has actually been the more impressive runner this season, coming off a career-high eight carries for 38 yards against the Chiefs. With this game likely more competitive than that, expect him to get an increased workload and eclipse his rushing yards total.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Broncos vs Bears spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened with the Broncos as 3-point road favorites, and while that number is still available, it's juiced to about -120 at some books while others have moved past that key number to -3.5 with that priced around -105. The total has ticked up from 46 to 46.5. 

It seems weird to say about a team that just gave up 70 points, but the Broncos likely have a better defense than the Bears. No, they aren't as good as their numbers last year (ninth in the league in defensive EPA/play) might suggest, but they're also not nearly as terrible as they looked against Miami's high-octane offense last week. 

Justin Fields has massively regressed after a promising sophomore campaign in 2022. Fields has an efficiency rating of just 67.7 and his completion percentage of 58% is nearly eight points lower than his expected completion percentage. He holds on to the ball too long, hasn't been processing his reads, is inaccurate with his throws, and can't attack deep.

The Bears coaching staff is also in turmoil following the resignation of defensive coordinator Alan Williams last week and calls for head coach Matt Eberflus to be axed. 

Broncos vs Bears game info

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