The Denver Broncos scored 33 points in the fourth quarter to earn an improbable win over the New York Giants in Week 7, while the Dallas Cowboys came away with a dominant win over the division rival Washington Commanders.
Can Denver stay hot at home, or will Dallas come away with a second straight victory?
Here are my top NFL picks for Cowboys vs. Broncos, along with Bo Nix odds, as he looks to build on his monumental fourth-quarter performance.
Bo Nix prop pick
Bo Nix best bet: Bo Nix Over 232.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
The Dallas Cowboys' defense stinks. There’s no other way to say it. The Cowboys have allowed the third-most points per game at 29.4. They’ve surrendered the most passing yards per game (260.3) and the third-most passing touchdowns per game (2.3).
The Cowboys’ passing defense allowed Justin Fields to pass for 283 yards, Caleb Williams to pass for 298, and Russell Wilson to go off for 450.
Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has passed for at least 233 yards in three of his last four games, including two straight at home. He’s averaged 193.8 passing yards on the road compared to 260.3 at home.
Nix has a golden opportunity to rack up major passing yardage against arguably the NFL’s worst passing defense.
Nix’s season-high is 326 passing yards, but it wouldn’t be shocking if his best passing game of the season came against Dallas, as it did for Fields, Williams, and Wilson.
Bo Nix same-game parlay
Bo Nix Over 232.5 passing yards
Courtland Sutton Over 60.5 receiving yards
Tony Franklin anytime touchdown
Courtland Sutton leads Denver in receiving at 469 yards through seven games. That’s an average of 67 yards per game, and he’s recorded at least 61 in five of seven contests overall.
He’s averaged 76.3 receiving yards at home compared to just 60 on the road, and he’s hit the Over on this receiving line in all three home games. With Nix poised to let ‘er rip, expect Sutton to be a prime beneficiary.
Like Sutton, Tony Franklin should have no problem exploiting Dallas’ weak passing defense. The young wideout is one of only eight players with 10 red zone targets, and he’s the only one with fewer than four touchdowns.
He’s one of only five receivers with eight red zone catches, and he ranks third in red zone receiving yards at 63. He’s due for positive touchdown regression, and Dallas offers the ideal matchup for it.
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