The Denver Broncos are the top seed in the AFC and have been resting and waiting for their Divisional Round opponent.
The Buffalo Bills are that opponent, escaping Jacksonville with a Wild Card win and now laying points as a road favorite in Mile High.
My Bills vs. Broncos predictions and NFL picks look into these opening odds and the initial action while giving my early leans for January 17.
Bills vs Broncos predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Early Bills vs Broncos spread pick: Broncos +1.5
Even before the Wild Card round, look-ahead lines listed the Buffalo Bills as slight road chalk for the Divisional Round. Oddsmakers stuck to that line for the official opener, with some sharp sites running it up to Buffalo -2.5 on Monday morning.
There are mixed feelings about this spread, as the Bills face one of the best defenses in the league on the road with injuries stacking up on offense. The Bills' receiving corps is decimated and QB Josh Allen was lucky to leave Duval County in one piece after playing through multiple injuries Sunday.
The Denver Broncos’ defense is among the Top 5 in many advanced metrics and will focus fire on Buffalo’s ground game — which is also missing a RB2. Jacksonville was able to shutdown RB James Cook, but its secondary came up short against Allen.
The Broncos have a top-tier pass defense and one of the best secondaries in the land. Denver has plenty of reps against elite QBs as well, taking on the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, and Jordan Love.
Early Bills vs Broncos total pick: Under 46.5
The Bills’ downfield attack will be limited, with the playbook shortened due to the injuries at WR. That leaves tight ends and Khalil Shakir as top options.
The Broncos’ passing offense isn’t explosive, either. Quarterback Bo Nix sits near the bottom of most “air yards” statistics, and Denver relies more on yards after the catch. In fact, the Broncos are the third best YAC passing game in the NFL, and face a Bills defense that has allowed the fewest YAC to receivers on the year.
Denver will go after a suspect Buffalo run stop, hoping to chip away and set up easier third downs, while controlling possession. The Broncos’ rushing attack has improved in the home stretch and runs behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.
We’ve seen Buffalo have a tough time cracking defenses like the Broncos. The Bills managed only 12 points against the Eagles, 19 points versus Houston, and 23 points in a close win over Cleveland. Denver ranks right alongside those stop units this season.
Bills vs Broncos odds
- Bills vs. Broncos spread: Broncos +1.5
- Bills vs. Broncos moneyline: Bills -126, Broncos +108
- Bills vs. Broncos Over/Under: 46.5
How to watch Bills vs Broncos
- Bills vs. Broncos matchup
- Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026, kickoff time TBD
- City: Denver, CO
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
- TV: TBD
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
