Bills vs Bears Week 16 Picks and Predictions: Fields Continues to Put Legs to Work

Buffalo has clinched a playoff spot, but now it's in search of home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Although Chicago may not pull off the upset, our NFL betting picks are banking on Justin Fields to find the end zone.

Last Updated: Dec 24, 2022 8:16 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Buffalo Bills travel to Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears on Saturday.

Buffalo is in the top spot in the AFC East and has already clinched a playoff spot but is looking for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. 

Meanwhile, Chicago has the worst record in the NFC and the second-worst record in the NFL, only behind the one-win Houston Texans. 

Is there any way it can pull off the upset, or will Buffalo keep rolling along? Find out in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for the Bills vs. Bears on December 24.

Bills vs Bears best odds

Bills vs Bears picks and predictions

Both the Buffalo Bills and Chicago Bears have a quarterback who is a dual threat. Josh Allen has run for 705 yards — good for the leading rusher on his team — and 22nd-best in the NFL. 

The real story here, however, is the Chicago Bear signal called Justin Fields. The 23-year-old leads his team with 1,000 yards and is seventh in the league in rushing. He is also closing in on Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson’s record (1,206) for rushing yards for a quarterback in a season. 

Fields needs 207 yards in the next three games to break the record, and he is averaging 76.9 yards on the ground per game. He has dipped below his average in just one of his last five games. 

More importantly for prop bettors is his eight rushing touchdowns. There are no real playmakers in Chicago other than Fields, so he has taken it upon himself to be the focus of the offense. 

In his last seven games, Fields has had at least one rushing touchdown in six of them. Buffalo is sixth in run defense and I don’t think Fields will get a ton of yards, but I do believe he’ll be the first option when they are in the red zone. 

Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy admitted as much, telling reporters that they aren’t changing their offensive mindset for this game. Getsy said he is aware of how close Fields is to Jackson’s record. 

''We won't sacrifice winning the game and usually, him being a part of that is part of what we do anyway,'' Getsy said. ''So I don't think that's going to be something we're going to have to think about.''

Expect Fields to find the end zone Saturday.

My best bet: Fields anytime touchdown (+190)

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Bills vs Bears spread analysis

Buffalo has not been a friend to spread bettors this season. The Bills have one of the worst records against the spread in the NFL,  repping a 5-8-1 ATS record this season. 

What is more concerning is their record ATS when they have been favored by eight or more points. That has happened five times this season — covering the first game against Tennessee — but failing to cover any of the next four. 

Buffalo is laying 8.5 to nine points depending on the sportsbook. Don’t expect Chicago to just roll over for the Bills. The Bears might not win many games as huge underdogs, but they have a .500 record ATS in those games, going 3-3. 

The team is first in rushing yards in the NFL, averaging 186.9 yards a game. QB Justin Fields leads the team with 1,000 rushing yards, while running back David Montgomery is second at 694, and Khalil Herbert has 643. 

This might be the type of grind-it-out game the Bears are looking for. The Bills' run defense is sixth and this could be where the game is won, as both defenses will have to contain a dual-threat quarterback.

Bills vs Bears Over/Under analysis

A lot gets said of the total — especially the Under — when the weather is cold and windy. Snow drives the total down even more. 

For this game, the total has been set at either 40 or 40.5 depending on the sportsbook. The forecast calls for 10 degrees, with winds whipping off Lake Michigan at 20 mph. It looks like Soldier Field will avoid the blizzard. 

Last week, the Bills hosted the Miami Dolphins in Orchard Park with temperatures at 30 degrees and smow falling in the second half. The total for that game was 44 and the final score was 32-29. 

Buffalo scores points no matter the conditions. It ranks fourth in points per game average with 27.5, while Chicago is 22nd in points allowed, averaging 25.6. 

In the seven games the Bears have lost, they had 30 or more points scored on them three times. In the other four losses, the opponent scored 25 or more. 

The Over might even get help from the Bears. In those same seven losses, Chicago has scored 20 or more points in all but one of them. 

So, yes, it’s going to be cold and windy, but players on both of these teams are used to it. Don’t shy away from the Over because of the elements. 

Bills vs Bears betting trend to know

The favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Bears.

Bills vs Bears game info

Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Date: Saturday, December 24, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Bears +9, 42 O/U

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