Although Caleb Williams is finally starting to look like a franchise quarterback, my NFL picks are fading the Chicago Bears pivot in a tricky matchup against the New York Giants.
See why I'm fading Williams and check out the rest of my favorite NFL player props for Week 10.
NFL Week 10 prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Caleb Williams |
Under 230.5 passing yards | -114 |
 Jahmyr Gibbs |
Anytime touchdown | -165 |
 Bam Knight |
Under 29.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Nick Herbig |
To record a sack | +128 |
 Rachaad White |
Over 19.5 receiving yards | -114 |
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 10
Prop pick: Caleb Williams Under 230.5 passing yards
Caleb Williams is coming off back-to-back 280-yard games, but there are a few reasons to fade him on his passing yards total in Week 10.
Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson loves to run the ball, so expect him to lean on his surging ground game against a New York Giants defense that ranks last in the NFL in success rate against the run.
One thing this Giants D can do is get to the quarterback, and Williams struggles against teams with a strong pass rush. He has a passing grade of 81.2 when kept clean in the pocket per PFF, but that number plummets to 46.2 under pressure.
There’s also a 65% chance of rain with 20 mph swirling winds at Soldier Field on Sunday, which should hinder both teams’ passing attacks.
Prop pick: Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown
Detroit Lions Pro Bowler Jahmyr Gibbs is coming off a game where he was limited to 28 yards on 12 touches. Detroit's offense had trouble executing against a blitz-happy Vikings stop unit that was constantly generating pressure.
That won’t be the case this week against a Washington Commanders defense that ranks 27th in the league in EPA. The unit has worsened in recent weeks after losing No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore and top pass rusher Dorance Armstrong to long-term injuries.
The Commanders sit near the bottom of the NFL in red-zone defense while allowing 4.7 touchdowns per game over their last three contests. Gibbs is a touchdown machine, and before last week, he had scored a touchdown in 16 of his previous 20 games.
Prop pick: Bam Knight Under 29.5 rushing yards
Arizona Cardinals running back Bam Knight was held to 27 yards on nine carries against the Cowboys' piss-poor run defense last week. Arizona's other RB Emari Demercado returned from an ankle injury and balled out, rushing for 79 yards on 14 carries.
Demercado is the more efficient runner and has more big-play potential. Knight will still play a role at the goal line and on third-downs, but expect Demercado to shoulder a bigger workload in Week 10.
The Cardinals are 7-point dogs against the Seattle Seahawks, so we could also see a negative game script and more passing for Arizona. In addition, Seattle allows just 63.1 rushing yards per game on 3.2 yards per carry to opposing RBs — both numbers good for second-best in the league.
Prop pick: Nick Herbig To Record a Sack
Despite being a backup last year, Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker Nick Herbig notched 5.5 sacks and ranked first in the NFL in pass rush win rate. This year, he's already racked up 4.5 sacks and once again leads the league in pass rush win rate.
The former third-team All-American has been rotating on the edge with T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. However, Highsmith has been limited in practice this week due to an ankle injury, so Herbig could be in line for more snaps.
Pittsburgh's pass rush should feast against a Los Angeles Chargers offensive line that is vulnerable on the edge and surrendered six sacks last week. Pro Bowl tackle Rashawn Slater has missed the entire season due to an injury, and Joe Alt is now done for the year as well.
Prop pick: Rachaad White Over 19.5 receiving yards
With Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving ruled out for Week 10, that means another start for Rachaad White.
He could find it tough to find running room against a New England Patriots stop unit that allows a league-low 75.4 rushing yards per game. That said, the Pats are vulnerable to backs in the passing game, ranking 29th in DVOA against the position and surrendering 40.8 receiving yards per game.
White's biggest strengths are his pass-catching and pass-blocking abilities, which keep him on the field on third downs. He's logged more than 20 receiving yards in four of his last five games and should eclipse that number again.
NFL Week 10 prop betting card
- Williams u230.5 passing yards (-114)
- Gibbs anytime touchdown (-165)
- Knight u29.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Herbig to record a sack (+128)
- White Over 19.5 receiving yards (-114)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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